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2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

1/6/2018

 

2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

My 2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide will cover important statistics and give you the information you will need to win your leagues this season.

Fantasy Baseball is often-times broken down into two different scoring formats: Rotisserie (Roto) and Points. In a Points league, players will receive a predetermined amount of points for their daily stats. Point totals will vary from league to league so it's important to know how your league scores before you draft. In a Rotisserie league, you'll compete for specific categories such as ERA, Home Runs, WHIP and so on. Some Roto leagues are scored on a weekly basis, like head-to-head leagues, while other (often more popular) leagues will add up yearly totals.


A majority of the references in my Draft Guide will be in relation to a standard 5x5 rotisserie league with the following categories: Batting Average, Home Runs, Runs Scored, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, ERA, WHIP, Wins, Strikeouts and Saves. I prefer Roto scoring because, generally, the best team will win at the end of the regular season. In head-to-head leagues, you may have a few bad weeks and get burned in the standings. The Rotisserie format allows you to be as patient as possible and focus on the long-term goal of being the best team in the league when it's all said and done.

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Joe Camporeale/USA Today
Before I get into my Draft Guide I want to cover the three types of Drafts you'll encounter.

An Auction Draft is a draft in which every team owner is given a set amount of money to spend on players. A ball player will be nominated and every team owner will have an opportunity to bid on him. This is my favorite type of draft as it gives every team a chance to own any player they want.

A Snake Draft is when every team is locked into a spot in the draft order. Pretty self-explanatory.

An Autopick Draft is when team owners set their pre-draft values and the league will commence with the draft automatically, without human interference. This is my least favorite style of drafting as you lose all control after you set your player values.


Target Numbers

I'll give you a set of Target Numbers I want you to focus on when entering this season like I have for the past five years. My target numbers were created from years of studying and playing Fantasy Baseball and are meant to help you achieve a first place finish in your leagues. Here's a look at the numbers for this year: 

Home Runs - 330 or more
Batting Average - .282 or higher
Runs - 1,100 or more
RBI - 1,050 or more
Stolen Bases - 190 or more

Wins - 100 or more
Strikeouts - 1,500 or more
ERA - 3.30 or lower
WHIP - 1.15 or lower
Saves - 150 or more


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David Zalubowski/AP
If you reach these target numbers you will likely earn the max amount of points in each category. After years of reviewing my leagues I have identified that the winning teams usually have a total of 80 rotisserie points in ten-team leagues.

There are a few ways to reach 80 points. Below are a few examples: 

8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8=80
10+10+10+10+10+6+6+6+6+6=80
9+7+9+7+9+7+9+7+9+7=80
10+6+7+9+8+9+8+7+6+10=80
9+9+9+9+9+9+9+8+8+1=80

Each number represents a statistical category in rotisserie leagues. In the fifth example, you'll see "1" is the final number in the sequence; this number stands for a category that the owner gave up on. I'm not one to promote the "punting" of categories. In other words, I don't recommend giving up on any one category in an effort to bolster your chances of putting up more points in others. My strategy, as always, is based on competing in every category for a full year.


Draft Strategy

Now that you know my target numbers it's time to check out my hitting strategy for 2018. My strategy will focus on standard 5x5 Fantasy leagues with the following 13 roster spots:

Catcher (C)
First Base (1B)
Second Base (2B)
Third Base (3B)
Shortstop (SS)
Outfield 1 (OF)
Outfield 2 (OF)
Outfield 3 (OF)
Outfield 4 (OF)
Outfield 5 (OF)
Corner Infielder (1B/3B)
Middle Infielder (2B/SS)
Utility
(UTIL)

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Dustin Franz/NY Times
If you break down my target numbers into each of these starting spots, you'll need to average 25.39 home runs, 14.62 steals, 80.77 RBI, 84.62 Runs and a .282 batting average per slot.

That may sound intimidating but they are achievable goals. First, we should put those numbers into perspective.


Among Qualified Batters
25+ HR
15+ SB
81+ RBI
85+ Runs
.282 or higher BA

2017
74
52
60
54
49

2016
65
47
71
52
55

2015
41
50
47
39
48

For those of you who were under a rock last season, Major League Baseball set a new record, hitting a collective 6,105 home runs. That's an average of about 2.5 home runs per game (6,105 HR divided by 2,430 games played).
 
Several players had career years last season in terms of home runs hit.
 
Elvis Andrus hit 20 homers in 2017 after never hitting more than eight home runs in any one of his previous eight seasons. Eddie Rosario launched 27 bombs last season, 14 more than his previous career high. Joey Gallo hit 41 in his first full season in the Majors. Mike Moustakas set the franchise record for home runs in Kansas City with 38. Justin Smoak launched 38 after never hitting more than 20 in any of his previous seven seasons in the pros. Yonder Alonso mashed 28 homers last season after never hitting more than nine previously.


We also had several rookies burst onto the scene showcasing their power. Yankees' phenom Aaron Judge hit 52 homers, breaking the single season mark by a rookie (a record previously held by Mark McGwire). Matt Davidson hit 26 for the White Sox. Andrew Benintendi hit 20 for the Red Sox. Trey Mancini hit 24 for the Orioles. Matt Olson hit 24 homers in just 189 at bats for Oakland. Rafael Devers hit 10 homers in just 222 at bats for the Red Sox. Rhys Hoskins hit 18 in 50 games (just 170 at bats).

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Mike Stobe/Getty Images
From 2007 to 2013 Major League Baseball saw 5,000+ home runs in just one season (2009). In 2014 we saw 4,186 total homers hit, the lowest since 1995 which had just 4,081 long balls. In 2015 we saw 4,909 home runs, a significant increase from 2014 but still less than 5,000. In 2016 we saw 5,610 home runs, the most since 2000 when 5,693 homers were hit.

Whether you like it or not the increase in power is here to stay and should be accounted for in your drafts (especially in your keeper/dynasty league drafts). 
 
Today's analytics will tell you that there are three different types of outs players can have: ground out, strikeout and fly out. The worst type of out a player can make is a ground out. It increases the chances of a double play (if there are runners on base) and a ground ball is almost a for-sure out due to the high volume of shifts teams use on defense these days. 


Due to the large number of shifts, players don't want to hit the ball on the ground. Rather, batters these days want to lift the ball and try to hit home runs. If they fail to get it over the fence they still have a chance to help any runner on base tag up on a deep fly ball.
 
You also need to keep this in mind: a home run is instant offense while a ground ball or line drive will require multiple hits to score a run.

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Alex Brandon/AP
Follow along as I show you how to use this increase in power to your advantage on draft day through the use of complementary players and attention to detail.
 
By complementary players I mean guys that can "complement" your other hitters. I think it's key to target batters who specialize in high batting averages and stolen bases in the later rounds of your drafts. With the dramatic increase in power, you'll need to put in extra effort to find guys who can help you reach my target numbers.
 
Whit Merrifield, Ender Inciarte, Lorenzo Cain and Adam Eaton (if he's healthy) are four terrific examples of players who will complement the sluggers you picked up early in your draft.

Along with complementary players should come the notion of position scarcity and multi-position eligibility. The adage of “power in the corners and speed up the middle” is beginning to fade away as a majority of Major League players are terrific athletes and can do just about anything.

Still, there is something to be said for a corner infielder who can hit for power and steal bases with ease, as well as a power hitting shortstop with good speed (like Elvis Andrus).


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Nathan Hunsinger/Dallas News
Multi-position players can help your Fantasy teams this year but they shouldn't be given any extra value on draft day. It's nice to have a versatile player on your roster but I'd prefer a power guy (like Adam Duvall or Jay Bruce) or a speed guy (like Manuel Margot) on my bench rather than an average hitter that can play two or three positions (like Josh Harrison).
 
With that in mind we need to look at the depth at each position and make some choices about when to go after each one. If you're wondering when to take an Outfielder, Second Baseman, Third Basemen, etc., I have some advice: at the beginning of your draft during the first three rounds or so, take the best player available. In the next few rounds begin rounding out your roster.

Let me expand on that with a few blind resumes.


Player A
Projected 2018 ADP: 33rd - 37th

2017 Stats:
BA - .322
HR - 23
RBI - 93
R - 94
SB - 2

Player B
Projected 2018 ADP: 33rd - 37th

2017 Stats:
BA - .288
HR - 39
RBI - 119
R - 91
SB - 1

Player C
Projected 2018 ADP: 98th - 102nd

2017 Stats:
BA - .300
HR - 15
RBI - 49
R - 86
SB - 26

Player D
Projected 2018 ADP: 98th - 102nd

2017 Stats:
BA - .304
HR - 11
RBI - 57
R - 93
SB - 22

Player A is Daniel Murphy, Player B is Nelson Cruz, Player C is Lorenzo Cain and Player D is Ender Inciarte. Being able to pair a power hitter like Nelson Cruz with either Cain or Inciarte is a huge plus towards reaching my target numbers.
 
With the combined numbers between Cruz and Cain, you would have had 54 home runs, 168 RBI, 177 runs, 27 steals and a batting average over .290. When you average that out per roster spot you'd get 27 HR, 84 RBI, 88.5 R and 13.5 SB. According to my target numbers heading into this season (25.39 HR, 80.77 RBI, 84.62 R and 14.62 SB) those two would be a perfect pair should they repeat their 2016 numbers.
 
As for Murphy and Inciarte; they would have combined for 34 homers, 150 RBI, 187 Runs, 24 steals and a batting average around .310, maybe a little higher. When you average their numbers out you would have got 17 HR, 75 RBI, 93.5 Runs and 12 steals per slot. It was a good combination last season but if they repeat their numbers this season they'd fall short of my target numbers. Should you find yourself in this predicament in the Spring, I suggest going after someone who can bolster your power and speed numbers, even if it means sacrificing a little batting average. Someone like Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza Jr. or Manuel Margot would suffice.


This year I'm expecting a deep core of Infielders and a relatively weak crop of Outfielders. I'd make it a point to go after elite Outfielders early in your drafts (Trout, Harper, Stanton, etc.) and then round out your roster with mid-tier Infielders like Bogaerts, Sano, Rendon, Cano, Odor, Hosmer and, if you're a believer in him, Rhys Hoskins. Late in drafts you should be able to snag high-upside guys like Paul DeJong who I'm a huge fan of.

Shoehei Ohtani will be a name that goes extremely high in Fantasy drafts this season. The Angels were able to lure the Japanese phenom to sign with them this off season but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be worth a Top 50 pick. I currently have him ranked just outside the Top 100 in my Rankings & Projections but I think he'll be picked much higher in drafts this year. I'd have no issue with you taking him in the seventh or eighth round but I have some concerns with him that would force me to wait on him like whether or not his skills on the mound translate to the Majors. If it helps, I think you should draft him with the mind-set that he's a good Pitcher with upside (I have him ranked close to Masahiro Tanaka and Gerrit Cole). I would not however take his hitting skills into consideration when drafting him. You're drafting him as a Starting Pitcher who can hit a little bit as opposed to doubling-up his value as a Starting Pitcher AND Designated Hitter.

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Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today
My rule of thumb for this year, like last year, is to have three Starting Pitchers, four or five Outfielders (at least two in the first five rounds) and four or five Infielders with your first 12 picks. After the first 12 rounds I usually start looking at Catchers, Closers and high-upside Starting Pitchers that will help round out my rotation.
 
Keep in mind, my hitting strategy works if you reach the 40 point mark; that is your main goal. It will complement my pitching strategy which I’ll get into here in a bit. In short, follow my target numbers for each slot throughout the entire year. Do whatever you can to reach those numbers.


Pitching Strategy

As I segue into my pitching strategy I want to make a few things clear. Starting Pitching is still the deepest position in Baseball; however, there's a clear difference between the elite Pitchers and the second-tier guys. In all of my years playing Fantasy Baseball I have never drafted a Starting Pitcher in the first six rounds of any draft. As the elite Pitchers separate themselves I'm going to change things up and force myself to find an elite ace in either the fourth or fifth round of my drafts this Spring.
 
I've also noticed that all of my roto teams over the past few years do well in wins, strikeouts and saves but tend to fall towards the bottom of the league in ERA and WHIP. By taking an elite Pitcher early on and finding good streaming options late in the year I'll hopefully be able to buck that trend in 2018.


Remember my team target numbers for pitchers:

Wins - 100 or more
Strikeouts - 1,500 or more
ERA - 3.30 or lower
WHIP - 1.15 or lower
Saves - 150 or more

In consideration of the foregoing, it should be noted that among qualified Starting Pitchers...

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Steven Bisig/USA Today
In 2012
10 Pitchers had an ERA below 3.04 - 6 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower
5 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 - 4 of them had a WHIP of 1.14 or lower
10 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 6 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower
30 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 14 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower

In 2013
15 Pitchers had an ERA below 3.04 - 10 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower
7 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 - 2 of them had a WHIP of 1.14 or lower
12 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 7 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower
26 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 14 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower

In 2014
23 Pitchers had an ERA of 3.04 or lower - 13 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower
3 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 - 1 of them had a WHIP of 1.14 or lower
9 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 2 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower
32 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 16 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower

In 2015
15 Pitchers had an ERA of 3.04 or lower - 11 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower
2 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 - 1 of them had a WHIP of 1.14 or lower
9 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 4 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower
28 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 16 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower

In 2016
11 Pitchers had an ERA of 3.04 or lower - 6 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower
4 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 - all 4 of them had a WHIP of 1.14 or lower
8 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 6 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower
17 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 11 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower
 
In 2017
8 Pitchers had an ERA of 3.04 or lower – 6 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower.
1 Pitcher had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 – he did not have a WHIP of 1.14 or lower
6 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 4 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower
14 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 9 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower
 
By waiting on Pitchers you'll be able to draft a better hitter in the earlier rounds. I'd prefer to select Mike Trout, Bryce Harper or Nolan Arenado in the first round as opposed to taking Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. If you select Kershaw or Scherzer in the first or second round, you'll force yourself to take nothing but hitters in the next several rounds possibly losing the opportunity to draft a good value-Pitcher in the middle rounds.

In order to achieve a team ERA of 3.30 (this year's target number) you have to...
Have 200 total starts that average 5 Innings Pitched allowing 1.84 Runs on average (367 total Runs).
Have 200 total starts that average 6 Innings Pitched allowing 2.20 Runs on average (440 total Runs).
Have 200 total starts that average 7 Innings Pitched allowing 2.56 Runs on average (513 total Runs).
Have 200 total starts that average 8 Innings Pitched allowing 2.93 Runs on average (586 total Runs).
 
Obviously, it won’t be easy to reach these numbers but I'll get to a trick I've been using for years to help here in a bit. But first I'll reiterate that I usually win my Fantasy leagues by following my above strategy AND this one rule: end your Draft with five or six Starting Pitchers and four or five cheap Closers on your roster.


That should allow you to build up a solid lead in the saves category over the first few months of the season which should put you in the “driver’s seat” when July rolls around and other teams in your league are looking, and willing to trade a lot, for Closers.

I would never use a high draft pick or spend a lot of my auction budget on a Closer. Every season we see several teams change Closers due to either poor performance or trade.

The best example of this from last season would be when the Yankees removed All Star Aroldis Chapman from the Closer's role. Chapman would later go on to regain the job but he finished the year with just 22 saves.


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Jim McIsaac/News Day
I also wouldn't worry too much about the amount of home runs Pitchers gave up last season. This is now part of the game and something that we need to get accustomed to. When rankings Pitchers I made it a point to turn my attention to walks allowed, strikeouts and batting average against with runners on base. I could care less if a Pitcher gives up 25 solo homers next season, I'd rather deal with that than a guy who allows a hit every time a runner is on base.
 
2017
April ERA: 4.09
May ERA: 4.29
June ERA: 4.63
July ERA: 4.36
August ERA: 4.38
September ERA: 4.35
Season ERA: 4.35

2016
April ERA: 3.98
May ERA: 4.19
June ERA: 4.44
July ERA: 4.03
August ERA: 4.33
September ERA: 4.17
Season ERA: 4.18

2015
April ERA: 3.94
May ERA: 3.82
June ERA: 3.77
July ERA: 3.84
August ERA: 4.21
September ERA: 4.24
Season ERA: 3.96

2014
April ERA: 3.81
May ERA: 3.77
June ERA: 3.77
July ERA: 3.77
August ERA: 3.71
September ERA: 3.60
Season ERA: 3.74

In addition to the chart above, Major League Baseball saw 97 games in the month of August in which a team scored at least nine runs in a single game. In September that number jumped to 115.
 
If you're concerned about not having enough starting pitching, don't worry, I have a way to account for that. Towards the final two months, depending on where I am in the standings, I turn to streaming starters.
 
Streaming Starting Pitchers will allow you to take chances on young prospects who get called up in July by teams who are trying to postpone their arbitration clock. If you don't know much about the minors right now go ahead and read my MLB Farm System Rankings (I really enjoyed writing it).


Delaying the Major League debut of these prospects is often a good sign as they are usually the prospects teams care the most about (think Kris Bryant in 2015 making his debut on the 13th day of the 2015 season so that he wouldn't be eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season instead of the 2020 season). Cincinnati Reds prospect Luis Castillo was called up in June last season and subsequently went on to finish the season with a 3-7 record despite a 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 98 strikeouts in just 89.1 innings (15 starts).

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Steve Mitchell/USA Today
By streaming Starting Pitchers you'll also have the opportunity to go after guys who started the season poorly.

Case and point, Ivan Nova. Nova got off to a cold start in 2016 going 7-6 with a 4.90 ERA through his first four months of the season with the Yankees. After being traded to the Pirates, Nova finished the year strong going 5-2 in his final 11 starts posting a 3.06 ERA with Pittsburgh.
 
Here are some more interesting stats that back my strategy:

- Last August, among Starting Pitchers who made at least three starts, 34 recorded an ERA of 3.00 or lower. Of those 34 Starters, 21 of them posted an ERA of 2.56 or lower. Of those 21 Pitchers, eight of them posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower. Among those eight were Brandon Woodruff, Chris Stratton, Ryan Merritt, Luke Weaver, Dylan Bundy, Jake Arrieta, Corey Kluber and Stephen Strasburg. Only Kluber, Arrieta and Strasburg were considered Top 100 Starting Pitchers entering last season.

- In September, among Starting Pitchers who made at least three starts, 28 recorded an ERA of 2.74 or lower. Of those 28 Pitchers, 12 of them posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower. Among those 12 were Tyler Mahle, Mike Clevinger, Carson Fulmer, Daniel Mengden and Tyler Anderson, all guys who probably went undrafted in your leagues last season.
 
To expand on things a little more, guys like Cole Hamels (5.09 ERA in September), Jon Lester (4.18 ERA in September) and Chris Archer (7.48 ERA in September), all of whom were Top 20 Starting Pitchers entering the season, struggled down the stretch.

If that doesn't show you the importance of streaming Pitchers, and staying away from over-priced names, I don't know what will.

I would also never shy away from taking 8th inning guys to help solidify my ERA and WHIP while tallying a few strikeouts here and there without adding another start to my roster. Remember, standard Fantasy leagues have a 200 start limit on the season so adding a late inning Reliever like Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, Mauricio Cabrera and/or Pedro Strop will help you add strikeouts and lower your ERA and WHIP cheaply. If you're curious, I tend to begin streaming pitchers around the 150 start mark or when there is about two months to go in the season (hence the August and September stats above).


Another reason I try not to take Pitchers high in my drafts is because their season could be over with one bad pitch. If a Pitcher's mechanics are slightly off, they increase their chances of getting injured. Speaking from experience (I pitched for two different Colleges back in the day) I can tell you that Pitchers risk injury every time they throw the ball - hitters don't have that same risk factor. If you've spent a high draft pick on Stephen Strasburg in the past (or Noah Syndergaard last season) you know the risk that I'm talking about.

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Nick Wass/AP
As you look to stream Pitchers down the stretch it'll be important to know what parks to target. It's no secret that Yankee Stadium is a homer-prone park, especially for left handed hitters but did you know that nine parks allowed more homers than Yankee Stadium in 2013. In 2014 only two parks gave up more home runs than Yankee Stadium. In 2015 only one park averaged a higher number of homers hit per game than Yankee Stadium (Oriole Park at Camden Yards). In 2016 Yankee Stadium saw the most home runs hit per game than any other park in the Majors. Only two parks saw more homers than Yankees Stadium last season: Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore and Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

If you're streaming Pitchers try not to pick one up that is facing any of the following teams on the road: Rockies (1st in runs scored at home last season), Diamondbacks (2nd), Yankees (3rd), Rangers (4th), Cubs (5th), Nationals (6th) and/or Indians (10th). These teams tend to hit better, and for more power at home.


2013 Top 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Yankee Stadium - 2.06 HR/G
9. Safeco Field - 2.10 HR/G
8. Wrigley Field - 2.16 HR/G
7. Citizens Bank Park - 2.17 HR/G
6. U.S. Cellular Field - 2.21 HR/G
5. Miller Park - 2.28 HR/G
4. Great American Ball Park - 2.30 HR/G
3. Minute Maid Park - 2.31 HR/G
2. Rogers Centre - 2.64 HR/G
1. Oriole Park at Camden Yards - 2.86 HR/G


2014 Top 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Chase Field - 1.85 HR/G
9. U.S. Cellular Field - 1.86 HR/G
8. Dodger Stadium - 1.88 HR/G
7. Minute Maid Park - 2.01 HR/G
6. Great American Ball Park - 2.04 HR/G
5. Miller Park - 2.09 HR/G
4. Oriole Park at Camden Yards - 2.16 HR/G
3. Yankee Stadium - 2.28 HR/G
2. Rogers Centre - 2.30 HR/G
1. Coors Field - 2.58 HR/G


2015 Top 10 HR/G by Ballpark
T10. Wrigley Field - 2.11 HR/G
T10. Citizens Bank Park - 2.11 HR/G
9. Globe Life Park at Arlington - 2.19 HR/G
8. Safeco Field - 2.22 HR/G
7. Great American Ball Park - 2.26 HR/G
6. Miller Park - 2.33 HR/G
5. Minute Maid Park - 2.44 HR/G
4. Coors Field - 2.49 HR/G
3. Rogers Centre - 2.51 HR/G
2. Yankee Stadium - 2.70 HR/G
1. Oriole Park at Camden Yards - 2.96 HR/G


2016 Top 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Rogers Centre – 2.51 HR/G
9. Comerica Park – 2.60 HR/G
8. Target Field – 2.62 HR/G
7. Globe Life Park in Arlington – 2.63 HR/G
6. Coors Field – 2.65 HR/G
5. Oriole Park at Camden Yards – 2.70 HR/G
4. Chase Field – 2.73 HR/G
3. Great American Ball Park – 2.81 HR/G
2. Yankee Stadium – 2.84 HR/G
1. Safeco Field – 2.89 HR/G
 
 
2017 Top 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Comerica Park – 2.68 HR/G
9. Miller Park – 2.68 HR/G
8. Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum – 2.81 HR/G
7. Guaranteed Rate Field – 2.83 HR/G
6. Citizens Bank Park – 2.85 HR/G
5. Target Field – 2.86 HR/G
4. Globe Life Park in Arlington – 2.95 HR/G
3. Yankees Stadium – 3.00 HR/G
2. Great American Ball Park – 3.01 HR/G
1. Oriole Park at Camden Yards – 3.23 HR/G


2013 Bottom 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Turner Field - 1.83 HR/G
9. PETCO Park - 1.80 HR/G
8. Target Field - 1.75 HR/G
7. Nationals Park - 1.67 HR/G
6. Dodger Stadium - 1.60 HR/G
5. Kauffman Stadium - 1.54 HR/G
4. AT&T Park - 1.35 HR/G
3. Busch Stadium - 1.33 HR/G
2. PNC Park - 1.31 HR/G
1. Marlins Park - 1.04 HR/G


2014 Bottom 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Angel Stadium - 1.58 HR/G
9. PNC Park - 1.46 HR/G
8. Tropicana Field - 1.44 HR/G
7. Fenway Park - 1.43 HR/G
6. Busch Stadium - 1.38 HR/G
5. Nationals Park - 1.33 HR/G
4. AT&T Park - 1.32 HR/G
3. Marlins Park - 1.28 HR/G
2. Kauffman Stadium - 1.26 HR/G
1. PETCO Park - 1.25 HR/G


2015 Bottom 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Chase Field - 1.91 HR/G
9. Comerica Park - 1.89 HR/G
8. Progressive Field - 1.86 HR/G
7. O.co Coliseum - 1.72 HR/G
T5. PNC Park - 1.60 HR/G
T5. Kauffman Stadium - 1.60 HR/G
4. Busch Stadium - 1.47 HR/G
3. Turner Field - 1.40 HR/G
2. Marlins Park - 1.37 HR/G
1. AT&T Park - 1.35 HR/G



2016 Bottom 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. PETCO Park – 2.17 HR/G
9. Minute Maid Park – 2.11 HR/G
8. Dodger Stadium – 2.09 HR/G
7. Wrigley Field – 2.01 HR/G
6. Kauffman Stadium – 1.91 HR/G
5. O.co Coliseum 1.84 HR/G
4. PNC Park – 1.83 HR/G
3. Turner Field – 1.62 HR/G
2. Marlins Park – 1.54 HR/G
1. AT&T Park – 1.47 HR/G
 
 
2017 Bottom 10 HR/G by Ballpark
10. Tropicana Field – 2.44 HR/G
9. Progressive Field – 2.28 HR/G
8. PETCO Park – 2.25 HR/G
7. SunTrust Park – 2.15 HR/G
6. Busch Stadium – 2.15 HR/G
5. Kauffman Stadium – 2.15 HR/G
4. Marlins Park – 2.09 HR/G
3. Fenway Park – 2.02 HR/G
2. PNC Park – 1.88 HR/G
1. AT&T Park – 1.47 HR/G


I also did some research on the eight worst offensive teams, in terms of runs per game, over the past five seasons. Below is the list of those teams in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. Obviously, things can change due to free agency, injuries, slumps, as well as prospects getting called up; however, this is still a relevant tool to have entering the season.

2013 Fewest Runs Per Game
The Marlins scored 3.17 runs per game.
The White Sox scored 3.69 runs per game.
The Cubs scored 3.72 runs per game.
The Phillies scored 3.77 runs per game.
The Astros scored 3.77 runs per game.
The Twins scored 3.79 runs per game.
The Padres scored 3.81 runs per game.
The Mets scored 3.82 runs per game.
 
2014 Fewest Runs Per Game
The Padres scored 3.30 runs per game last year.
The Braves scored 3.54 runs per game last year.
The Reds scored 3.67 runs per game last year.
The Rays scored 3.78 runs per game last year.
The Cubs scored 3.79 runs per game last year.
The D-backs scored 3.80 runs per game last year.
The Cardinals scored 3.82 runs per game last year.
The Phillies scored 3.82 runs per game last year.
 
2015 Fewest Runs Per Game
The Braves scored 3.54 runs per game last year.
The Marlins scored 3.78 runs per game.
The White Sox scored 3.84 runs per game last year.
The Phillies scored 3.86 runs per game last year.
The Reds scored 3.95 runs per game last year.
The Rays scored 3.98 runs per game last year.
The Cardinals scored 3.99 runs per game last year.
The Padres scored 4.01 runs per game last year.

2016 Fewest Runs Per Game
The Phillies scored 3.76 runs per game last year.
The Braves scored 4.03 runs per game last year.
The A's scored 4.03 runs per game last year.
The Marlins scored 4.07 runs per game last year.
The Mets scored 4.14 runs per game last year.
The Brewers scored 4.14 runs per game last year.
The Rays scored 4.15 runs per game last year.
The Royals scored 4.17 runs per game last year.
 
2017 Fewest Runs Per Game
The Padres scored 3.73 runs per game last year.
The Giants scored 3.95 runs per game last year.
The Pirates scored 4.12 runs per game last year.
The Phillies scored 4.26 runs per game last year.
The Blue Jays scored 4.28 runs per game last year.
The Rays scored 4.28 runs per game last year.
The Royals scored 4.33 runs per game last year.
The White Sox scored 4.36 runs per game last year.


All of the above information is critical to know for next season. To close things out, I want to cover my approach to drafting Closers and Relief Pitchers. As I mentioned earlier, I typically try to snag four or five cheap Closers in my drafts as well as a few late inning Relievers. What I failed to mention is that I'm always on the lookout for new Closers to pick-up throughout the year.

In 2014 I had great success picking up guys like Hector Rondon, Cody Allen and Wade Davis. Davis was one of those 8th inning guys I picked up to help my team's ERA and WHIP but he also ended up racking up a few saves for me. In 2015 I grabbed Darren O'Day and had some success with him after Zach Britton went down with an injury. In 2016 I picked up Dellin Betances which benefited me greatly after the Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman. Last season I was able to grab Blake Parker, Felipe Rivero and Blake Treinen; those three combined for 45 saves last season.

Picture
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
Entering every season, I try to list off a handful of Closers I plan on targeting. This year will be no different. Here are a few I plan on picking up late in my drafts, you can check out my Rankings & Projections on the site to see how I'm valuing each of them individually.

Archie Bradley ARI
Sean Doolittle WSH
Mark Melancon SF
Brad Brach BAL
Kelvin Herrera KC
Blake Treinen OAK
Kyle Barraclough MIA
Shane Green DET
Fernando Rodney MIN

My motto for Closers will continue to be: Less Is More!

Remember that your main goal is to get 40 Roto points from your pitching staff as a whole. Closers will help you with saves obviously, but they are also a valuable asset to your team's WHIP, Strikeout and ERA totals.
 
Snake Drafts
A standard snake draft is considered the simplest form of drafting as everyone is given a spot in a draft order. The biggest problem you'll run into is reaching for players that you think will be taken before you get a second chance at them.

I see a lot of people reach for their favorite players a few rounds before they should get drafted because of fear of missing out on them. My advice would be to take what you're given and never reach for someone unless you're in the late rounds and want to sure up a few positions/categories. If you're in a snake draft I think you'll do fine simply by following my strategy and by being patient and prepared.

Auction Drafts
A standard auction league allows teams a budget of $260 with three bench spots, 13 starting hitter spots, nine pitcher spots and one DL spot. That's 25 total spots for healthy players. If you divide your $260 budget by 25, you'll allow yourself $10.4 per roster slot. I've never forced myself to stay under $11 per spot so you shouldn't either, it won't win you any leagues, I promise.


Instead, I try to take the same approach that I take in snake drafts in terms of each player's value. I try to grab one or two hitters that rank in my Top 15, after that I go after solid values. Auction leagues are won when a team hits big on a few late sleepers. Last year I did well with guys like Gary Sanchez ($10), Anthony Rendon ($8), Eduardo Nunez ($7), Andrew Benintendi ($6), Cody Allen ($4), and Hector Neris ($2). I'll do my best to find this year's steals but you can't pick them up if you waste most of your budget on five super stars.

A few years ago, I saw one team pick up Mike Trout ($46), Troy Tulowitzki ($30), Robinson Cano ($32), Miguel Cabrera ($45) and Andrew McCutchen ($46). That team finished in the bottom three in every pitching category and finished the year in 5th place. That owner spent a total of $199 (77% of their total budget) on those five players. I urge you not to take that approach this season.

Picture
Christian Smith/AP
My final piece of advice is to take this Draft Guide, understand the information, and use it to your advantage. I release my information before other writers do in order to help you plan your draft strategy before they get a chance to chime in.

In conclusion, make sure you draft three Pitchers within the first 12 rounds but avoid the high-price aces. Also among those first 12 picks should be a balanced number of Outfielders and Infielders. After those picks you need to turn your attention to taking a Catcher and drafting multiple Closers and a few high-upside Starting Pitchers. Also, when going after late-round flyers focus on players with great power or speed potential and always be on the lookout for top prospects in the final few rounds.

Here's some more of my recent work:


1/2/18 Keeper Rankings
2018 Rankings & Projections
MLB Farm System Rankings
2018 Late Round Flyers
Potential 2018 Rookie Breakouts
2018 Top Pitching Prospects
2018 Top Hitting Prospects
2017 Stats: American League
2017 Stats: National League

I hope this Draft Guide helped. Please like our Facebook page and follow me on twitter and Facebook for updates throughout the year. Good luck to you and your Fantasy teams this season!

Alex Wiesner
January 6th, 2018
Archives
Ed Rollins
1/6/2018 12:50:16 pm

This is epic, great article. Just my two cents, I think the Yankees win it all and Stanton wins MVP. I'd take him first overall in my draft.

CC
1/6/2018 02:18:44 pm

Great read. I'll be posting this on my Facebook.

Jack
1/18/2018 08:08:14 am

Thank you for breaking this down. Really good stuff for a beginner like me.

Bronx Bombers
1/21/2018 08:03:43 am

This is fantastic. The hard work you put in is much appreciated. Very helpful ... thank you.


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