This blog is going to be a bit longer than the others but it is worth the read. I will have a lot of links on here to take you back to my predictions and projections. I will try to make this as funny as possible but I'm no Lewis Black... here's a joke.
JOKE: Adam Dunn's batting average last year.
Not a bad start but comedy writing is definitely not in my future anytime soon. What do we know about the MLB fantasy player pool in 2012? We know that pitching is deep. We know that power generally comes from the corner spots while defense is found up the middle. Players like Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Kemp are valuable because they bring a power bat to a defensive minded position. These types of players are very hard to find. It doesn't matter as much in terms of fantasy position eligibility with Kemp because most leagues don't use a CF slot but rather the normal OF slot. Tulowitzki has been an elite player for a few years and has always had the added value of playing a talent scarce position.
Blind Resume #1:
Player A: .302, 32 HR, 85 Runs, 99 RBI, 12 SB
Player B: .338, 27 HR, 108 Runs, 117 RBI, 1SB
Player B clearly seems to have had the better season. Player B was considered to have had a down year last year. Player B was ranked higher in every fantasy format that I saw. Player A is 27 years old, Player B is 29 years old which would put them both in their primes. These are typical seasons from each of these guys, don't think that this was a career year from either of them. So why is Player A projected about 10 spots higher than Player B is entering 2012?
POSITION SCARCITY
If you couldn't figure it out, Player A is Troy Tulowitzki and Player B is Adrian Gonzalez.Troy is the premier shortstop entering 2012 while Gonzalez is ranked as the 4th (depending who you agree with) at first base.
I understand this is just one example and it seems fairly basic because I'm using big name guys. We'll lets take a closer look at things. This time I will use my own personal projections from some of the previous blogs.
Blind Resume #2:
Player A: My #7 Projected Second Baseman BA-.261 HR-19 RBI-87 Runs-80 SB-19
Player B: My #28 Projected Outfielder BA-.261 HR-19 RBI-87 Runs-80 SB-19
Wait did I just project the exact same numbers for two different players? NO. It's clear Player A and Player B are the same person (Ben Zobrist). If you were curious ESPN fantasy experts project Zobrist as the #5 second baseman and the #17 outfielder. What does this show you? A high end second baseman is the equivalent of a #2 or #3 starting outfielder in your league.
So what does that mean if I own Zobrist?
He has more value at second base. You get more from Zobrist if he plays a talent scarce position than in the outfield. It would make a lot more sense to have a player be considered elite at your 2B slot than just average as your #2 or #3 OF.
http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-second-base-rankings.html
http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-outfield-rankings.html
*On a side note, I do love Zobrist somewhat this year and I think if his average can stay above .270 he is a near lock for 20/20.
That covers position value/scarcity... What's next?
How about another joke?
JOKE: My love Life.
JOKE (not at my expense): Whats the difference between Edinson Volquez and UPS? UPS knows how to throw a strike.
Pitching Depth
Entering your draft you should have your own basic strategy and I'm guessing you would want to have your pitching staff led by a big name or two. I'm going to convince you to stay away from that and wait for pitching later in your draft.
We all know the big name aces out there: Halladay, Verlander, Lee, Hernandez, Lincecum.
BUT what do we know about them? They are all top 35 picks.
Blind Resume #3:
Pitcher A: 34 Starts, 3.17 ERA, 192 K's, 1.02 WHIP, 16 Wins
Pitcher B: 29 Starts, 2.95 ERA, 117 K's, 1.15 WHIP, 13 Wins
Obviously the Strikeouts stand out big time here but entering 2011 Pitcher A was ranked as the 12th best Starter and Pitcher B was ranked 38th. He was drafted several rounds lower. Pitcher A is Dan Haren and Pitcher B is Jeremy Hellickson. If the difference in K's concerns you a lot, here is a list of players that are relatively cheap that will provide you with help at specific categories:
Cheap Source of (Average Draft Position in 2012 drafts):
K's: Brandon Morrow TOR (ADP 160), Ryan Dempster CHC (ADP 211).
ERA: Tim Hudson ATL (ADP 152), Brandon McCarthy OAK (ADP 169).
WHIP: Ted Lilly LAD (ADP 167), Scott Baker MIN (ADP 158).
Wins: Hiroki Kuroda NYY (ADP 149), Derek Holland TEX (ADP 234).
Pitcher C: 0 Starts, 0 ERA, 0 K's, 0 WHIP, 0 Wins
Pitcher C is Adam Wainwright or Johan Santana or Alex Wiesner (me).
What to expect from Returning, Revamped and Repaired arms?
These newly repaired arms along with the highly touted prospects and reliever turned starter type guys will be on curfew throughout the entire 2012 season.
Here's a list of guys:
Now here's a list of pitchers coming off an injury or for whatever reason will most likely be on an innings limit thisyear:
Whose at risk entering this year?
Tommy Hanson is the big name here. He has shoulder issues but they aren't bad enough to require surgery yet. I'd give it 5 or 6 starts before that changes. For the right value he could be a steal. If healthy he is a 15 win, 200 strikeout ace pitcher but I can't give him my seal of approval until this whole shoulder thing figures itself out. With his delivery I think surgery is in his near future.
Most Bang for the Buck guys:
Jordan Zimmerman WAS- stepping into his own and in a situation where he is the "other guy" because of Strasburg's popularity will take off a lot of pressure. I think Zimmerman will perform like a top 20 pitcher and he is being drafted like a mid 30's guy.Cory Luebke SD- Since becoming a starter last year here is his numbers in 17 starts: 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 9.92 K/9 ratio. Oh did I mention his home ball park is Petco.
Recap
Here is my thoughts as I proofread this. I do believe in position scarcity but only to a certain extent. If I have the first overall pick I'm not taking Tulowitzki over Miggy, Braun, Kemp, Bautitsta, or Pujols. If later on in the draft I need a second baseman and I have to pick between Brandon Phillips or Lance Berkman or Alex Gordon, I'll snag Phillips. It comes down to how you value a position versus whats available overall. With pitching it is the same thing. The difference between the #19 pitcher and the #30 pitcher may not be enough to warrant taking a pitcher extremely high and skipping out on a mid round hitter with upside such as Asdrubal Cabrera, Adam Jones, Brett Gardner. Pitching comes down to who offers the upside value later in your draft of a hitter currently available. Follow these guidelines and hopefully, If I'm right, you will have championship caliber teams in 2012.Position by position links to my projections:
Catcher- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-catcher-rankings.html
First- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-first-baseman-ranks.html
Second- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-second-base-rankings.html
Third- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-third-base-rankings.html
Shortstop- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-shortstop-rankings.html
OF- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-outfield-rankings.html
SP- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-starting-pitcher.html
RP- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-closerrp-rankings.html
Ya I know that looks ugly but I'm not the best computer guy.
JOKE: My computer skills and this http://media.zenfs.com/en/blogs/sptusmlbexperts/minorleagueguy.jpg
As we near the end of spring training we are nearing the end of your fantasy draft season. Its time to get your act in gear because opening day, April 4th, is right around the corner.
Fantasy Freak Baseball League Update
Whose in:
Mr. Fantasy Freak Mike
Co-host Alex
Website Creator Jaxon
Ross Vader (our Stats guy)
Untalented TMR
Matt Donley
We may alter some of the names prior to starting the league, email in if you want to have a specific nickname but we will have final say on that. Also if your not in, continue to email in to join our league we are sorting through the inbox daily to pick out people we like. It will be a 10 or 12 team mixed league so keep your invites coming. We will be using ESPN so make sure you have an account on there.
We are creating our own website now with a dot com name. Stay tuned for more information on that as well.
Connect with The Fantasy Freak Podcast and its voices by twitter and email:
@MrFantasyFreak
@Awies28 (has a picture of me and Jackie Joyner Kersee) Not just sports tweets, PG18ish
email us at mrfantasyfreak@yahoo.com
podcast link
Alex Wiesner
JOKE: Adam Dunn's batting average last year.
Not a bad start but comedy writing is definitely not in my future anytime soon. What do we know about the MLB fantasy player pool in 2012? We know that pitching is deep. We know that power generally comes from the corner spots while defense is found up the middle. Players like Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Kemp are valuable because they bring a power bat to a defensive minded position. These types of players are very hard to find. It doesn't matter as much in terms of fantasy position eligibility with Kemp because most leagues don't use a CF slot but rather the normal OF slot. Tulowitzki has been an elite player for a few years and has always had the added value of playing a talent scarce position.
Blind Resume #1:
Player A: .302, 32 HR, 85 Runs, 99 RBI, 12 SB
Player B: .338, 27 HR, 108 Runs, 117 RBI, 1SB
Player B clearly seems to have had the better season. Player B was considered to have had a down year last year. Player B was ranked higher in every fantasy format that I saw. Player A is 27 years old, Player B is 29 years old which would put them both in their primes. These are typical seasons from each of these guys, don't think that this was a career year from either of them. So why is Player A projected about 10 spots higher than Player B is entering 2012?
POSITION SCARCITY
If you couldn't figure it out, Player A is Troy Tulowitzki and Player B is Adrian Gonzalez.Troy is the premier shortstop entering 2012 while Gonzalez is ranked as the 4th (depending who you agree with) at first base.
I understand this is just one example and it seems fairly basic because I'm using big name guys. We'll lets take a closer look at things. This time I will use my own personal projections from some of the previous blogs.
Blind Resume #2:
Player A: My #7 Projected Second Baseman BA-.261 HR-19 RBI-87 Runs-80 SB-19
Player B: My #28 Projected Outfielder BA-.261 HR-19 RBI-87 Runs-80 SB-19
Wait did I just project the exact same numbers for two different players? NO. It's clear Player A and Player B are the same person (Ben Zobrist). If you were curious ESPN fantasy experts project Zobrist as the #5 second baseman and the #17 outfielder. What does this show you? A high end second baseman is the equivalent of a #2 or #3 starting outfielder in your league.
So what does that mean if I own Zobrist?
He has more value at second base. You get more from Zobrist if he plays a talent scarce position than in the outfield. It would make a lot more sense to have a player be considered elite at your 2B slot than just average as your #2 or #3 OF.
http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-second-base-rankings.html
http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-outfield-rankings.html
*On a side note, I do love Zobrist somewhat this year and I think if his average can stay above .270 he is a near lock for 20/20.
That covers position value/scarcity... What's next?
How about another joke?
JOKE: My love Life.
JOKE (not at my expense): Whats the difference between Edinson Volquez and UPS? UPS knows how to throw a strike.
Pitching Depth
Entering your draft you should have your own basic strategy and I'm guessing you would want to have your pitching staff led by a big name or two. I'm going to convince you to stay away from that and wait for pitching later in your draft.
We all know the big name aces out there: Halladay, Verlander, Lee, Hernandez, Lincecum.
BUT what do we know about them? They are all top 35 picks.
Blind Resume #3:
Pitcher A: 34 Starts, 3.17 ERA, 192 K's, 1.02 WHIP, 16 Wins
Pitcher B: 29 Starts, 2.95 ERA, 117 K's, 1.15 WHIP, 13 Wins
Obviously the Strikeouts stand out big time here but entering 2011 Pitcher A was ranked as the 12th best Starter and Pitcher B was ranked 38th. He was drafted several rounds lower. Pitcher A is Dan Haren and Pitcher B is Jeremy Hellickson. If the difference in K's concerns you a lot, here is a list of players that are relatively cheap that will provide you with help at specific categories:
Cheap Source of (Average Draft Position in 2012 drafts):
K's: Brandon Morrow TOR (ADP 160), Ryan Dempster CHC (ADP 211).
ERA: Tim Hudson ATL (ADP 152), Brandon McCarthy OAK (ADP 169).
WHIP: Ted Lilly LAD (ADP 167), Scott Baker MIN (ADP 158).
Wins: Hiroki Kuroda NYY (ADP 149), Derek Holland TEX (ADP 234).
Pitcher C: 0 Starts, 0 ERA, 0 K's, 0 WHIP, 0 Wins
Pitcher C is Adam Wainwright or Johan Santana or Alex Wiesner (me).
What to expect from Returning, Revamped and Repaired arms?
These newly repaired arms along with the highly touted prospects and reliever turned starter type guys will be on curfew throughout the entire 2012 season.
Here's a list of guys:
- President Obama
- Kobe Bryant
- John Elway
- Brad Pitt
- Chris Tucker
- Peter Griffin
Now here's a list of pitchers coming off an injury or for whatever reason will most likely be on an innings limit thisyear:
- Adam Wainwright- Coming off Tommy John, Adam is different than other cases. He had the surgery early last off season and has had the proper time to recoup. He should be ready to go within the first month of the season but most likely will be capped around 160 innings.
- Neftali Feliz- Texas is converting their lights out closer into a starter this year. He was a starter in the minors and they feel this is the best value in the long term.
- Chris Sale- Like Feliz, the Sox are taking their former 1st rounder and turning him into a starter. Sale has the stuff to be a front of the line type guy but expect a lot of bumps and growing pains in 2012. My guess is he will be capped around 160 innings.
- Johan Santana- One of the more curious cases here, Santana scares a lot of owners and to be honest I'm scared to touch him in a draft. Even if he is healthy he hasn't pitched in roughly 2 years.
- Brett Anderson- Elbow surgery will delay his 2012 debut but I can see him as a trendy pickup towards the end of the season. Hopefully he gives you 6 or 8 starts down the stretch.
- Josh Johnson- Not sure when they will cap him but I'm willing to bet it will be around 180 or whenever he says he slept wrong on his arm. He has the talent and track record of a top 10 guy. I really hope he's healthy because if he is, the Marlins have a legit chance of winning it all.
Whose at risk entering this year?
Tommy Hanson is the big name here. He has shoulder issues but they aren't bad enough to require surgery yet. I'd give it 5 or 6 starts before that changes. For the right value he could be a steal. If healthy he is a 15 win, 200 strikeout ace pitcher but I can't give him my seal of approval until this whole shoulder thing figures itself out. With his delivery I think surgery is in his near future.
Most Bang for the Buck guys:
Jordan Zimmerman WAS- stepping into his own and in a situation where he is the "other guy" because of Strasburg's popularity will take off a lot of pressure. I think Zimmerman will perform like a top 20 pitcher and he is being drafted like a mid 30's guy.Cory Luebke SD- Since becoming a starter last year here is his numbers in 17 starts: 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 9.92 K/9 ratio. Oh did I mention his home ball park is Petco.
Recap
Here is my thoughts as I proofread this. I do believe in position scarcity but only to a certain extent. If I have the first overall pick I'm not taking Tulowitzki over Miggy, Braun, Kemp, Bautitsta, or Pujols. If later on in the draft I need a second baseman and I have to pick between Brandon Phillips or Lance Berkman or Alex Gordon, I'll snag Phillips. It comes down to how you value a position versus whats available overall. With pitching it is the same thing. The difference between the #19 pitcher and the #30 pitcher may not be enough to warrant taking a pitcher extremely high and skipping out on a mid round hitter with upside such as Asdrubal Cabrera, Adam Jones, Brett Gardner. Pitching comes down to who offers the upside value later in your draft of a hitter currently available. Follow these guidelines and hopefully, If I'm right, you will have championship caliber teams in 2012.Position by position links to my projections:
Catcher- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-catcher-rankings.html
First- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-first-baseman-ranks.html
Second- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-second-base-rankings.html
Third- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-third-base-rankings.html
Shortstop- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-preseason-shortstop-rankings.html
OF- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-outfield-rankings.html
SP- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-starting-pitcher.html
RP- http://mrfantasyfreak.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-preseason-closerrp-rankings.html
Ya I know that looks ugly but I'm not the best computer guy.
JOKE: My computer skills and this http://media.zenfs.com/en/blogs/sptusmlbexperts/minorleagueguy.jpg
As we near the end of spring training we are nearing the end of your fantasy draft season. Its time to get your act in gear because opening day, April 4th, is right around the corner.
Fantasy Freak Baseball League Update
Whose in:
Mr. Fantasy Freak Mike
Co-host Alex
Website Creator Jaxon
Ross Vader (our Stats guy)
Untalented TMR
Matt Donley
We may alter some of the names prior to starting the league, email in if you want to have a specific nickname but we will have final say on that. Also if your not in, continue to email in to join our league we are sorting through the inbox daily to pick out people we like. It will be a 10 or 12 team mixed league so keep your invites coming. We will be using ESPN so make sure you have an account on there.
We are creating our own website now with a dot com name. Stay tuned for more information on that as well.
Connect with The Fantasy Freak Podcast and its voices by twitter and email:
@MrFantasyFreak
@Awies28 (has a picture of me and Jackie Joyner Kersee) Not just sports tweets, PG18ish
email us at mrfantasyfreak@yahoo.com
podcast link
Alex Wiesner
RSS Feed