## Fantasy Baseball Player Value Formula

All of the numbers are strictly my opinions and mine only. If you have your own projections please don't hesitate to insert them into this formula to see if it relates to your personal opinion. Last season I gave you target numbers to reach for in your roto leagues. This year I've made some adjustments to those numbers.

So here we go...

2013 Target NumbersHome Runs - 320 or more Batting Average - .284 or higher Runs - 1,120 or more RBI - 1,120 or more Stolen Bases - 215 or more Wins - 100 or more Strikeouts - 1,500 or more ERA - 3.15 or lower WHIP - 1.15 or lower Saves - 150 or more | 2014 Target NumbersHome Runs - 300 or more Batting Average - .284 or higher Runs - 1,120 or more RBI - 1,120 or more Stolen Bases - 200 or more Wins - 100 or more Strikeouts - 1,500 or more ERA - 3.15 or lower WHIP - 1.15 or lower Saves - 150 or more |

Players Projections / Target Numbers = % of Target Numbers Example: Mike Trout LAA (my projections) 29 Home Runs / 300 Home Runs = 9.67% 113 Runs / 1,120 Target Runs = 10.09% 100 RBI / 1,120 Target RBI = 8.93% 39 Steals / 200 Target Steals = 19.5% Notice, I've left off the Batting Average category. |

Example:

Mike Trout LAA projected Batting Average: .327

327 / 3,692 = 8.86%

Mike Trout's BA value comes out to 8.86%.

And because I value the home run category more than the others, the next step would be to multiply your home run percentage by 1.5 due to the 300/200 HR/SB ratio from the target numbers. So for Trout, it would turn his 9.67% into 14.51%.

To finish up the formula, add up every percentage (61.89) and divide it by five (for five categories), that should give you a player's percentage value. For Mike Trout, that number is 12.38%.

This formula also fails to take position flexibility into consideration. First Base is deeper than Second Base in terms of Fantasy value - there's more information on that in my Draft Guide.

Sometimes it's good to go back and look at a player's past numbers. In order to see just how credible my formula is, I'll take a look at a player's value from last season by working in their 2013 stats.

Miguel Cabrera's 2013 Statistics BA - .348 HR - 44 RBI - 137 Runs - 103 SB - 3 BA Value: 348 / 3,692 = 9.43% 44 Home Runs / 300 Home Runs = 14.67% (adjusted value of 22.01%) 103 Runs / 1,120 Target Runs = 9.2% 137 RBI / 1,120 Target RBI = 12.23% 3 Steals / 200 Target Steals = 1.5% Miguel's 2013 value, according to my formula, was 10.87%. He finished the 2013 season as the #1 player in Fantasy Baseball. |

Combined Numbers:.272 & .296 Batting Averages 43 Home Runs 165 Runs 142 RBI 47 Steals | Combined Percentages:BA Value: 272 + 296 / 3,692 = 15.39% 43 Home Runs / 300 Home Runs = 14.33% (adjusted value of 21.5%) 165 Runs / 1,120 Target Runs = 14.73% 142 RBI / 1,120 Target RBI = 12.68% 47 Steals / 200 Target Steals = 23.5% |

87.8 / 10 = 8.78%

The 8.78% is the average value of each player when added. If you divide the 87.7 by 5 you'll end up with the total value of each player combined - which is 17.56%. If you compare their combined projected numbers to Mike Trout's projected numbers you'll see how this formula has some sense to it.

Trout = 12.38%

29 Home Runs (Trout is projected to hit 14 fewer than those two combined)

113 Runs (Trout is projected to score 52 less runs than those two combined)

100 RBI (Trout is projected to drive in 42 fewer runs than those two combined)

39 Steals (Trout is projected to steal just 8 fewer bases than those two combined)

.327 Batting Average (Trout is projected to hit for a higher average than both Davis and Revere)

This should just speak to Trout's true value in the Fantasy world.

Understand that this formula is just a starting point to create rankings and draft values for each player. The best part about this article is that it allows you to insert your own projections in an effort to see just how valuable a player is to you personally.

What I've taken away from developing this formula is just how important the Batting Average statistic can be. It's clear that a player with a high Batting Average can be more valuable than a player with a low one, even if they can contribute a lot in one or two categories.

So here's the formula one more time: (Projected BA Value x 1,000) / 3,692 = A% Projected HR / 300 Home Runs = X (multiply by 1.5) = B% Projected Runs / 1,120 Target Runs = C% Projected RBI / 1,120 Target RBI = D% Projected Steals / 200 Target Steals = E% (A% + B% + C% + D% + E%) / 5 = Player's Projected Value |

On a side note, I'm still working on a formula for pitcher values. It's going to take me some time but if you have any questions regarding this article please don't hesitate to post them.

Alex Wiesner

January 9th, 2014

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