Mock Draft 2.0 - Draft Positioning
This mock draft will be one of the more in-depth drafts I have done in recent memory. Each pick will be a first hand selection by me using my own draft strategies. I will explain my picks and thought process as I go through the draft. I want to try to give my readers ideas on specific strategies and how to draft from each slot. This will be based on a ten team standard league with the starting positions as follows: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR, DEF, K. Be sure to keep an eye on each team's draft position and how it can alter pre-draft schemes.
Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 | Round One 1. Aarian Foster RB 2. Ray Rice RB 3. LeSean McCoy RB 4. Aaron Rodgers QB 5. Calvin Johnson WR 6. Tom Brady QB 7. Maurice Jones-Drew RB 8. Drew Brees QB 9. Andre Johnson WR 10. Chris Johnson RB Round Two 11. Larry Fitzgerald WR 12. Matt Forte RB 13. Ryan Mathews RB 14. Greg Jennings WR 15. Rob Gronkowski TE 16. Marshawn Lynch RB 17. Darren McFadden RB 18. Mike Wallace WR 19. Matthew Stafford QB 20. Roddy White WR |
After two rounds here is how the pairings by position work out:
Team 1: RB, WR
Team 2: RB, QB
Team 3: RB, WR
Team 4: QB, RB
Team 5: WR, RB
Team 6: QB, TE
Team 7: RB, WR
Team 8: QB, RB
Team 9: WR, RB
Team 10: RB, WR
I'm not a big fan of taking Gronkowski within the first two rounds this year but pairing him with Brady seemed to make sense.
I like to take at least one Running Back in the first two rounds if at all possible. If you go back to my Draft Guide you will see that the first two tiers of running backs are all taken within the first 16 picks in this Mock Draft. In fact, I have 8 running backs going in the first 16 picks (8 RB, 4 WR, 3 QB, 1 TE).
Of all the pairs the most explosive would have to be the McCoy/Wallace duo although I think the team with Calvin Johnson and Marshawn Lynch will be just as viable. 6 of the 10 teams have a WR, RB combo. With the way things shaped up I think my dream pairing for the first two rounds would be Maurice Jones-Drew and Ryan Mathews. If that was the case I would wait on a QB until the later rounds (Cutler, Roethlisberger, Romo and/or Rivers come to mind). If you think about it, in a one QB league, you can get a top 10 passer later in the draft because most people won't draft their backup QB until the final few rounds.
As fun as it would be to plan things out, your first two round will be the outline for the rest of your draft. In a sense you have to let the elite players fall into your lap and then plan your draft strategy as you go. Be prepared to make adjustments keeping in mind the NFL is shifting into a pass happy league (as stated in Lists #3 and #4 in my preseason article "10 Lists of 10").
Entering the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds teams should look to balance out their rosters. I'm never happy when 3 of my first 4 picks are from the same position (unless a solid RB falls to me).
Team 1: RB, WR
Team 2: RB, QB
Team 3: RB, WR
Team 4: QB, RB
Team 5: WR, RB
Team 6: QB, TE
Team 7: RB, WR
Team 8: QB, RB
Team 9: WR, RB
Team 10: RB, WR
I'm not a big fan of taking Gronkowski within the first two rounds this year but pairing him with Brady seemed to make sense.
I like to take at least one Running Back in the first two rounds if at all possible. If you go back to my Draft Guide you will see that the first two tiers of running backs are all taken within the first 16 picks in this Mock Draft. In fact, I have 8 running backs going in the first 16 picks (8 RB, 4 WR, 3 QB, 1 TE).
Of all the pairs the most explosive would have to be the McCoy/Wallace duo although I think the team with Calvin Johnson and Marshawn Lynch will be just as viable. 6 of the 10 teams have a WR, RB combo. With the way things shaped up I think my dream pairing for the first two rounds would be Maurice Jones-Drew and Ryan Mathews. If that was the case I would wait on a QB until the later rounds (Cutler, Roethlisberger, Romo and/or Rivers come to mind). If you think about it, in a one QB league, you can get a top 10 passer later in the draft because most people won't draft their backup QB until the final few rounds.
As fun as it would be to plan things out, your first two round will be the outline for the rest of your draft. In a sense you have to let the elite players fall into your lap and then plan your draft strategy as you go. Be prepared to make adjustments keeping in mind the NFL is shifting into a pass happy league (as stated in Lists #3 and #4 in my preseason article "10 Lists of 10").
Entering the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds teams should look to balance out their rosters. I'm never happy when 3 of my first 4 picks are from the same position (unless a solid RB falls to me).
Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 | Round Three 21. Jamaal Charles RB 22. A.J. Green WR 23. Hakeem Nicks WR 24. Victor Cruz WR 25. Steven Jackson RB 26. DeMarcco Murray RB 27. Jimmy Graham TE 28. Julio Jones WR 29. Fred Jackson RB 30. Michael Turner RB Round Four 31. Cam Newton QB 32. Wes Welker WR 33. Trent Richardson RB 34. Brandon Marshall WR 35. Ahmad Bradshaw RB 36. Vincent Jackson WR 37. Frank Gore RB 38. Roy Helu RB 39. Jordy Nelson WR 40. Steve Smith WR Round Five 41. Mike Vick QB 42. Adrian Peterson RB 43. Eli Manning QB 44. Dez Bryant WR 45. Peyton Manning QB 46. Brandon Llyod WR 47. Tony Romo QB 48. Marques Colsten WR 49. Phillip Rivers QB 50. Darren Sproles RB |
Here is how the team's shape up after 5 Rounds:
Team 1: Foster, R. White, Charles, S. Smith and Vick. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 2: Rice, Stafford, A.J. Green, Nelson and Peterson. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 3: McCoy, Wallace, Nicks, Helu and E. Manning. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 4: Rodgers, McFadden, Cruz, Gore and Dez Bryant. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 5: Calvin Johnson, Lynch, S. Jackson, V. Jackson and P. Manning. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 6: Brady, Gronkowski, Murray, Bradshaw and Lloyd. (2 RB, 1 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE)
Team 7: Jones-Drew, Jennings, Graham, Marshall and Romo. (1 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE)
Team 8: Brees, Mathews, J. Jones, T. Richardson and Colsten. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 9: Andre Johnson, Forte, F. Jackson, Welker and Rivers. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 10: Chris Johnson, Fitzgerald, Turner, Newton and Sproles. (3 RB, 1 WR, 1 QB)
As you can see I like to have balance after the first 50 players are selected. The only teams that do not have two WR, two RB and one QB are the teams that drafted Gronkowski, Graham and Team 10 who went RB heavy taking Sproles as a safety net to Michael Turner. I'm not opposed to drafting the two Tight Ends, I just refuse to overpay for them. My Full Tight End Projections.
In Round 4 I had Team 3 select Roy Helu. For me, it was between Helu and Adrian Peterson. I didn't want to reach for Peterson because his injury risk is more of a concern to me than Helu's job security. If Helu is named the starter in Washington, and it looks like he will be, he could have a solid year under Mike Shannahan's one-cut-and-go scheme that produced multiple 1,000 yard rushers when he was the Head Coach in Denver. My Full Running Back Projections.
For Team 8 I had a hard decision to make in Round 5 between Colsten and Austin (both slight injury risks) but I went with Colsten because that team had drafted Brees in the first round. Sometimes pairing a QB with his WR can be beneficial, especially against a weak defense.
According to my First Mock Draft, Round 5 had a lot of Quarterbacks get drafted. The same held true in this expanded Mock.
For the next few rounds I will have the teams that took some slight risks earlier (Peterson, Helu, Nicks, etc.) err on the side of caution. For the teams that have a solid foundation, with little injury risks, I will go after the high risk, high reward players with the potential to break out. The next 3 rounds are key to the make up of your team.
Team 1: Foster, R. White, Charles, S. Smith and Vick. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 2: Rice, Stafford, A.J. Green, Nelson and Peterson. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 3: McCoy, Wallace, Nicks, Helu and E. Manning. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 4: Rodgers, McFadden, Cruz, Gore and Dez Bryant. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 5: Calvin Johnson, Lynch, S. Jackson, V. Jackson and P. Manning. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 6: Brady, Gronkowski, Murray, Bradshaw and Lloyd. (2 RB, 1 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE)
Team 7: Jones-Drew, Jennings, Graham, Marshall and Romo. (1 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE)
Team 8: Brees, Mathews, J. Jones, T. Richardson and Colsten. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 9: Andre Johnson, Forte, F. Jackson, Welker and Rivers. (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB)
Team 10: Chris Johnson, Fitzgerald, Turner, Newton and Sproles. (3 RB, 1 WR, 1 QB)
As you can see I like to have balance after the first 50 players are selected. The only teams that do not have two WR, two RB and one QB are the teams that drafted Gronkowski, Graham and Team 10 who went RB heavy taking Sproles as a safety net to Michael Turner. I'm not opposed to drafting the two Tight Ends, I just refuse to overpay for them. My Full Tight End Projections.
In Round 4 I had Team 3 select Roy Helu. For me, it was between Helu and Adrian Peterson. I didn't want to reach for Peterson because his injury risk is more of a concern to me than Helu's job security. If Helu is named the starter in Washington, and it looks like he will be, he could have a solid year under Mike Shannahan's one-cut-and-go scheme that produced multiple 1,000 yard rushers when he was the Head Coach in Denver. My Full Running Back Projections.
For Team 8 I had a hard decision to make in Round 5 between Colsten and Austin (both slight injury risks) but I went with Colsten because that team had drafted Brees in the first round. Sometimes pairing a QB with his WR can be beneficial, especially against a weak defense.
According to my First Mock Draft, Round 5 had a lot of Quarterbacks get drafted. The same held true in this expanded Mock.
For the next few rounds I will have the teams that took some slight risks earlier (Peterson, Helu, Nicks, etc.) err on the side of caution. For the teams that have a solid foundation, with little injury risks, I will go after the high risk, high reward players with the potential to break out. The next 3 rounds are key to the make up of your team.
Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 | Round Six 51. Miles Austin WR 52. Dwayne Bowe WR 53. Vernon Davis TE 54. Reggie Bush RB 55. Eric Decker WR 56. Percy Harvin WR 57. BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB 58. Jonathan Stewart RB 59. Willis McGahee RB 60. Jeremy Maclin WR Round Seven 61. Antonio Gates TE 62. Demaryius Thomas WR 63. Steve Johnson WR 64. Kenny Britt WR 65. Beanie Wells RB 66. Shonn Green RB 67. DeSean Jackson WR 68. Isaac Redmon RB 69. Aaron Hernandez TE 70. Jermichael Finley TE Round Eight 71. Robert Meachem WR 72. Jahvid Best RB 73. Ben Tate RB 74. Toby Gerhart RB 75. Denarius Moore WR 76. Ben Roethlisberger QB 77. Jason Witten TE 78. Fred Davis TE 79. 49'ers Defense 80. Jay Cutler QB |
Meachem is a steal (#1 WR for the Chargers). He was just another pass catcher in the Saints offense but for Phillip Rivers and the Chargers, Meacham offers high upside on a team that lacks an outside threat. My Full Wide Receiver Projections.
Best is another steal, if not for concussion concerns he may be concerned a top 15 Running Back despite an ADP in the 70's.
Denarius Moore may be a steal as well. He offers speed comparable to Mike Wallace and a second year (first training camp) with Carson Palmer should help their chemistry. Although it is Oakland, and they won't have a potent offense, I'm expecting Moore to be the deep threat. Here's your first mid round home run hitter.
For Team 8 I wanted to reach for a WR (Garcon) but I decided to stay away and attempt to get another WR a round or two later. I decided to go with the best available player on the board Ben Tate. If Foster's injury past comes into play Tate's presence on that roster may be huge.
For Team 7 I took Toby Gerhart. Two reasons led me to this pick: if Peterson isn't ready to go Week 1, Gerhart will get the start and if MJD holds out I would be counting on Gerhart to be my #2 Running Back. Team 7 will have to draft a sleeper Running Back later on in the draft to play it safe.
In Round 8 I took my first backup Quarterbacks. Cutler behind Mike Vick (injury concern) and Roethlisberger behind Peyton Manning (unknown health issues). I think Cutler and Big Ben could put up top 10 passing numbers. My Full QB Projections.
Also in Round 8 I went after my first Defense. Team 2 did not have a Tight End but with Fred Davis and Jason Witten going in the two previous picks, I did not want to reach a round ahead for Tony Gonzalez. I had a few players in mind at this point: Cutler, RG3, Pierre Garcon, Anquan Boldin or a defense. I decided to take the D.
Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 | Round Nine 81. Doug Martin RB 82. Jacob Tamme TE 83. Ravens Defense 84. Pierre Garcon WR 85. Bears Defense 86. Mark Ingram RB 87. Torrey Smith WR 88. Texans Defense 89. Stevan Ridley RB 90. Malcom Floyd WR Round Ten 91. C.J. Spiller RB 92. Santonio Holmes WR 93. Michael Crabtree WR 94. James Starks RB 95. Reggie Wayne WR 96. Donald Brown RB 97. Michael Bush RB 98. Darrius Heyward-Bay WR 99. Peyton Hillis RB 100. Eagles Defense |
Take note of how Team 5 is the only team without a TE, Tony Gonzalez is available but since nobody else will target him he may stay on the board a few rounds longer than normal. This is risky strategy when dealing with Quarterbacks, and even the other skill players, because nothing will excite a fantasy owner more than owning two top ten Quarterbacks but not all owners will draft a second TE, if they do it won't be until the last two rounds or so.
Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 | Round Eleven 101. Anquan Boldin WR 102. Titus Young WR 103. Robert Griffin III QB 104. Steelers Defense 105. Mario Manningham WR 106. Jets Defense 107. Matt Ryan QB 108. Lance Moore WR 109. LeGarrette Blount RB 110. Felix Jones RB Round Twelve 111. Justin Blackmon WR 112. Antonio Brown WR 113. Andrew Luck QB 114. Daniel Thomas RB 115. Sidney Rice WR 116. Tony Gonzalez TE 117. David Wilson RB 118. Pierre Thomas RB 119. Nate Washington WR 120. Brandon Jacobs RB |
Team 5 finally got their TE in the 12th Round.
Daniel Thomas went to Team 7 handcuffing Reggie Bush who was selected way back in the 6th Round.
Some would say that I reached for Antonio Brown but I think a lot of owners will look for him about the same time Justin Blackmon comes off the board. It's the old "Hot Shot Rookie vs. Sneaky Veteran" scenario. I really like Brown this year.
Daniel Thomas went to Team 7 handcuffing Reggie Bush who was selected way back in the 6th Round.
Some would say that I reached for Antonio Brown but I think a lot of owners will look for him about the same time Justin Blackmon comes off the board. It's the old "Hot Shot Rookie vs. Sneaky Veteran" scenario. I really like Brown this year.
Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 | Round Thirteen 121. Rueben Randle WR 122. Matt Schaub QB 123. Joseph Addai RB 124. Josh Freeman QB 125. Shane Vereen RB 126. Andy Dalton QB 127. Seahawks Defense 128. Mike Goodson RB 129. Bills Defense 130. Joe Flacco QB |
The Seattle Defense going in the 13th Round is a bit of a steal. A weak division with a great home crowd may have the Seahawks D produce top ten fantasy production. My Full Defense Projections.
I think Mike Goodson is a good backup to have. Remember the numbers Michael Bush put up when McFadden went down, that role now belongs to Goodson.
The next three rounds covered back up Defenses, deep sleepers and Kickers. This is the part of the draft where Tim Tebow will most likely be taken. I did not select him in this mock but I do believe he will get multiple starts at QB this year for the Jets.
I think Mike Goodson is a good backup to have. Remember the numbers Michael Bush put up when McFadden went down, that role now belongs to Goodson.
The next three rounds covered back up Defenses, deep sleepers and Kickers. This is the part of the draft where Tim Tebow will most likely be taken. I did not select him in this mock but I do believe he will get multiple starts at QB this year for the Jets.
Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Team 10 Team 9 Team 8 Team 7 Team 6 Team 5 Team 4 Team 3 Team 2 Team 1 | Round Fourteen 131. Chiefs Defense 132. Le'Ron McClain RB 133. James Jones WR 134. Bernard Scott RB 135. Brandon Pettigrew TE 136. Laurent Robinson WR 137. Randy Moss WR 138. Andre Caldwell WR 139. Jonathan Dwyer RB 140. Mike Tolbert RB Round Fifteen 141. Brent Celek TE 142. Stephen Hill WR 143. Cardinals Defense 144. Mike Williams (TB) WR 145. Cowboys Defense 146. Nate Burleson WR 147. Eddie Royal WR 148. Patriots Defense 149. Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 150. Giants Defense Round Sixteen 151. Stephen Gostkowski K 152. David Akers K 153. Mason Crosby K 154. Garrett Hartley K 155. Sebastian Janikowski K 156. Alex Henery K 157. Matt Prater K 158. Rob Bironas K 159. Dan Bailey K 160. Robbie Gould K |
Final Rosters
Team 1 QB: Mike Vick RB: Aarian Foster RB: Jamaal Charles WR: Roddy White WR: Steve Smith WR: Jeremy Maclin TE: Antonio Gates WR/RB: Doug Martin DEF: Eagles K: Robbie Gould Bench: Jay Cutler Anquan Boldin Brandon Jacobs Rueben Randle Mike Tolbert Brent Celek | Team 2 QB: Mathew Stafford RB: Ray Rice RB: Adrian Peterson WR: A.J. Green WR: Jordy Nelson WR: Demaryius Thomas TE: Jacob Tamme WR/RB: Willis McGahee DEF: 49ers K: Dan Bailey Bench: Peyton Hillis Titus Young Nate Washington Matt Schaub Jonathan Dwyer Stephen Hill | Team 3 QB: Eli Manning RB: LeSean McCoy RB: Roy Helu WR: Mike Wallace WR: Hakeem Nicks WR: Steve Johnson TE: Fred Davis WR/RB: Jonathan Stewart DEF: Ravens K: Rob Bironas Bench: Darrius Heyward-Bay Robert Griffin III Pierre Thomas Joseph Addai Andre Caldwell Cardinals Defense |
Team 4 QB: Aaron Rodgers RB: Darren McFadden RB: Frank Gore WR: Victor Cruz WR: Dez Bryant WR: Kenny Britt TE: Jason Witten WR/RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis DEF: Steelers K: Matt Prater Bench: Pierre Garcon Michael Bush David Wilson Josh Freeman Randy Moss Mike Williams (TB) | Team 5 QB: Peyton Manning RB: Marshawn Lynch RB: Steven Jackson WR: Calvin Johnson WR: Vincent Jackson WR: Percy Harvin TE: Tony Gonzalez WR/RB: Beanie Wells DEF: Bears K: Alex Henery Bench: Ben Roethlisberger Donald Brown Mario Manningham Shane Vereen Laurent Robinson Cowboys Defense |
Team 6 QB: Tom Brady RB: DeMarco Murray RB: Ahmad Bradshaw WR: Brandon Lloyd WR: Eric Decker WR: Denarius Moore TE: Rob Gronkowski WR/RB: Shonn Green DEF: Jets K: Sebastian Janikowski Bench: Mark Ingram Reggie Wayne Sidney Rice Andy Dalton Brandon Pettigrew Nate Burelson | Team 7 QB: Tony Romo RB: Maurice Jones-Drew RB: Reggie Bush WR: Greg Jennings WR: Brandon Marshall WR: DeSean Jackson TE: Jimmy Graham WR/RB: Torrey Smith DEF: Seahawks K: Garrett Hartley Bench: Toby Gerhart James Starks Matt Ryan Daniel Thomas Bernard Scott Eddie Royal | Team 8 QB: Drew Brees RB: Ryan Mathews RB: Trent Richardson WR: Julio Jones WR: Marques Colsten WR: Michael Crabtree TE: Vernon Davis WR/RB: Isaac Redmon DEF: Texans K: Mason Crosby Bench: Ben Tate Lance Moore Andrew Luck Mike Goodson James Jones Patriots Defense |
Team 9 QB: Phillip Rivers RB: Matt Forte RB: Fred Jackson WR: Andre Johnson WR: Wes Welker WR: Dwayne Bowe TE: Aaron Hernandez WR/RB: Jahvid Best DEF: Bills K: David Akers Bench: Stevan Ridley Santonio Holmes LeGarrette Blount Antonio Brown Le'Ron McClain Ryan Fitzpatrick | Team 10 QB: Cam Newton RB: Chris Johnson RB: Michael Turner WR: Larry Fitzgerald WR: Miles Austin WR: Robert Meachem TE: Jermichael Finley WR/RB: Darren Sproles DEF: Chiefs K: Stephen Gostkowski Bench: Malcom Floyd C.J. Spiller Felix Jones Justin Blackmon Joe Flacco Giants Defense |
Tell me who you think has the best team on Twitter @Awies28
Thanks for checking out my second mock draft. You can check out my first mock here (mostly based on ADP). I hope this will help you out in your drafts this year, it took me over 12 hours to complete this but I had fun writing it all out and running through some strategies. If you have any questions find me on Twitter.
Alex Wiesner
July 16th, 2012
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