For those of you that don't like Mondays (I'll raise my hand to that), July will not be fun for us. There are five Mondays this month. Sounds awful, right? Five Monday nights and none of them will include football. Hopefully this article will get you through a boring Monday, or even an uneventful Tuesday. I've seen Office Space and I know how lame things can be around the cubicle. But just like you, I have to find a way to get my job done. For those of you that aren't familiar with what I do, I help run a construction company by day and I run the website by night. It's not exactly Clark Kent; newspaper reporter by day, Superman by night. Although I do have special powers. I have the ability to predict Linsanity. I've done it once before, don't make me do it again. But I digress...
 
 
It's always nice to put together a "To Do list" on a Sunday evening and know that you're going to finish it on a Tuesday night. I've spent forty of the last sixty hours working on writings, projections and trying to figure out the meaning of life. Okay, I'm kidding about the last one. I already know the meaning of life. The meaning of life is, well- I'll tell you at the end of the article. That's what we in the sports writing industry call a tease, or a Ricky Nolasco. Definition of a Ricky Nolasco: When you're expecting something good and it turns out to be nothing, but the potential is still there. You spend years drafting the guy and he does nothing but eat up roster space until you decide to drop him after 6 weeks, then he throws back to back gems! Some of you may be more familiar with the plural basketball form of the noun: The Lopez Brothers. The last thing on this "To do list" is the Fantasy Football Draft Guide. That's what this is.
 
Alright, enough talk. Either demand a trade to the Brooklyn Nets or let's talk draft strategy.

- Andre Johnson is healthy and will demand a double team leaving 7 in the box.
- He has 659 career rushing attempts through 35 games.
- Ray Rice has 959 career rushing attempts through 61 games.
 
The shelf life of today's running back is 2-5 years of prime production. Why do you think Rice wants his money now? Why do you think Chris Johnson held out as long as he did? These athletes have agents that tell them their value is at its highest at a certain point and that they need to capitalize on it before they get hurt or slow down. Foster has 300 less career attempts compared to Rice. Foster is younger, faster and now finally healthy. If I had the second pick in the draft I wouldn't shy away from Rice, but Foster is my clear cut number one.
 
As for the rest of the running backs, the depth is fairly deep but there is a distinct drop off from tier to tier. Know how you want to value these guys entering your draft. I don't want to see any of you drafting Jonathan Stewart ahead of Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson or Fred Jackson. If I catch you, prepare to be unfollowed on Twitter. 
 

I don't see either of these two repeating the numbers they put up last year. In Graham's case he will be missing his head coach and possibly his QB (at least for OTA's). For Gronk, it will just be hard to repeat his record breaking numbers from last season. He put up eighteen total touchdowns last year, second only to LeSean McCoy's twenty. I still have Gronkowski as my number one TE entering the year. I see him as a late second round draft pick but I wouldn't be surprised if his ADP (Average Draft Position) is closer to 14 or 15. If Drew Brees is the starter week one, I say Graham is a mid 3rd round pick this year. If a contract extension isn't reached by September then I would have to move Graham down into the 4th round.
 
After Gronk and Graham are gone, I will wait until the 7th round to take a tight end. Vernon Davis, to me, is worth a 7th round pick. I'm not reaching for Antonio Gates or Jason Witten in the top 70.
 
Tight End Projections
 

Adrian Peterson - Torn ACL Christmas Eve last year. Is questionable for Week 1.
Jamaal Charles - Torn ACL Week 2 last year. Should be ready for Opening Day.
Rashard Mendenhall - Torn ACL Week 17 last year. Unknown timetable for return.
Peyton Manning - Multiple neck surgeries, missed all of last year. Should be ready for Opening Day.
Matt Schaub - Lisfranc surgery. Will be ready for the opener.
Darren McFadden - Foot injury week 7 last year. Will be ready for the opener.
Kenny Britt - Torn ACL Week 3 last year. Probable for the opener.
 

For those of you that lost last year and are close to giving up on fantasy sports, let me ask you something. If Mariah Carey just gave up on losing her post baby weight, would you be a happy person today? No, you wouldn't. Mariah didn't give up, and now she looks great again. I urge you to hang in there, do your pre draft preparation, and get back on top of your league this year.
 
 

Over the past two years we've seen nine QB's throw for over 4,600 yards in a season. From 2002-2009, we saw a total of five QB's throw for over 4,600 yards per season. In fact, I have projected five guys to throw for over 4,600 yards this year. I even projected nine guys to top the 4,000 yard mark. The league is evolving into a pass first league and the days of "defense wins championships" is no more. Most of this is due to the new rule changes that favor offenses. Now don't pass up on a QB until the 10th round. There is still a major drop off from Tier One to Tier Two, but what I want you to understand is that any QB in the top 10 can go off and lead the league in passing yards this year. If you want more proof that the NFL is transitioning into a passing league, read List #3 in my "10 Lists of 10" article. This should make last season's numbers put up by the 49ers' defense that much more special.
 
Like always, make sure you value your QB's the right way. Let's say you have the 30th and 31st picks in your snack draft. With your previous selections being Andre Johnson (10th) and Ryan Mathews (11th), you want a QB but the best available is Cam Newton and the Manning brothers. Do you reach for one of them or select the best position player? I say you grab a Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson or Michael Turner. The next time you pick will be 50th and 51st, at which point you can grab an underrated QB such as Tony Romo or Phillip Rivers. If you did reach for one of the Mannings or Cam Newton then you would have to select an RB or a WR at this point. The best available runner will be a Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams type of guy. The best available receiver will be a Jeremy Maclin, Dwayne Bowe type of guy. Let me make that a little bit clearer.
 

 
The difference between Romo and Peyton does not exceed the difference between Fred Jackson and DeAngelo Williams... No more questions your Honor.
 
Quarterback Projections
 

 
None of these players scare me this year. The key to beating the Sophomore Slump is three simple words: Average Draft Position. If you draft Newton in the second round and he regresses and finishes just outside the top 40 in overall numbers he'll be considered a bust. I suggest not reaching for any of these players, let them fall into your lap. If they do, consider it a sign from Tim Tebow's real father. Think about it, that joke makes sense.
 

The Receivers do, duh! I'm expecting big things from Chad Ochocinco this year. Going back to my "10 lists of 10" you can read #2 to understand why I'm so high on him. I'm also high on Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant and Michael Crabtree. But, like always, there are some issues heading into the season. 
 
Some major question marks heading into the year will be found in Denver. Who's Manning's go to guy? 
 
More questions will surface in San Francisco. What will be the pecking order in the Bay? 
 
There will even be some controversy in New England. Will Lloyd take numbers away from Welker? 
 
The position is deep but that only means one thing; when you think you drafted a steal in the 9th round with Torrey Smith, someone else is just waiting until the 11th round to snatch up Reggie Wayne. Do your homework, son!
 
One final note on receivers: the position is deep so don't get caught up in Justin Blackmon's potential. I'd rather own the reliable Anquan Boldin, especially if I'm a risk adverse drafter.
 
Wide Receiver Projections
 

As I said earlier, defenses no longer win championships. That's true in real life, but in fantasy football a solid Defense can be a major advantage. Some of us will always have a "set in stone" strategy for drafting a defense. 
 
You may be the "I'll take the easiest schedule defense" guy. This year that will be the Patriots (116-140 combined record from last year from teams on their schedule this year). Second is the Packers (120-136), and third is the Bills (121-135). 
 
You may be the "it's the 8th round, give me the 49ers" guy. That guy will overpay for a defense so he doesn't have to worry about anything for the rest of the year. 
 
There's always the "I'm a Cowboys fan so I'll take their defense" guy. That guy only does good if he isn't a fan of the Raiders, Colts, Bucs, Vikings, Rams or Redskins.
 
Then there's the craziest guy of all, the "I did my research and I'll take the..." guy. This year that guy will be drafting one of the following:
 

 
That guy will benefit from the off season moves made by each team. Whether it was the draft picks or the free agent signings, all three of those teams improved big time.
 
 I'm not sure what guy I'm going to be yet, but I'm leaning towards being the "easiest schedule" guy. But if I choose to go the other way, I will own one of the above three.
 
Defense Projections
 

 
Wrong!!! I'm sure their wife's and kids care. But none of us do. 
 
Kicker Projections
 

Your draft will depend on five major things:
1. Understanding how deep the quarterbacks are.
2. Understanding how shallow the elite running backs are.
3. Finding elite wide receivers in the middle rounds.
4. Knowing if you're high on Gronk and Graham.
5. Knowing when to draft best value or position need. Don't get fooled, stick to your strategy.
 

 
That about wraps up my Fantasy Football Draft Guide. Be sure to check out my projections littered throughout this article and on the website. Good luck this year and be sure to tweet me your fantasy football and baseball questions. Find me on Twitter @Awies28
 
One final draft tip before I conclude: When drafting, make sure you have fun. Writing this article is hard work but I'm having fun doing it. Don't stress over your draft. Chances are, you're going to be stressed out by Week 4 anyways. Try to enjoy yourself when you get together with your friends on draft day. I wish the website was sponsored by Hooters because that would be where I would advertise as the place to hold your fantasy football draft. If you work for Hooters, see if they want to advertise on mrfantasyfreak.com. If you work at Hooters and you're a girl, I have one thing to say to you:
 
Hi, I'm Alex. I'm a sportswriter. Wanna go out?
 
 
 

 
 
In case you forgot...
 
The meaning of life can be found in the following question:
 
If Tim Tebow has a thought, is it a Christian Ponder?
 
 
 
 
@Awies28
Alex Wiesner
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