I was going to wait a few days before I wrote this piece because I wanted to let it all sink in. Then I remembered I have a terrible memory (weird how I remember that). This draft took nearly three hours and a lot of Dr. Pepper. To give you a quick setup, it is a ten team standard league with roto scoring. The draft was the standard ESPN auction format and it got intense early. If your not a normal listener or reader to my work and your just now visiting the site you will quickly come to realize I am a huge Mike "Giancarlo" Stanton fan. Needless to say I was going to get him. He is in a sense my fantasy Kryptonite, except he'll actually return value unlike my other weaknesses, Kyle Blanks, Ricky Nolasco (more on him later), and Starlin Castro (more on him as well). I know I overpaid for him at $31 but I took an approach to this draft that many people do not....
Before I Begin:
What do we know about ESPN roto leagues? Well that over the past 3 seasons the average first place team has finished with 80.89 points.
What do we know about basic math?
8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8=80
10+10+10+10+10+6+6+6+6+6=80
9+7+9+7+9+7+9+7+9+7=80
10+6+7+9+8+9+8+7+6+10=80
(you may have seen this on ESPN but it's not copyrighted because their just numbers)
If this is too much feel free to use a calculator or a math mathematician to double check my work. Or a wizard if your still not sure.
If you don't understand what those numbers mean it's simple. Each number represents a category. If your in the standard ESPN league (like the draft I'm recapping) then the categories are: Batting Average, Home Runs, RBI's, Runs Scored, Steals, ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Wins, Saves. By finishing first in a category you will receive 10 points at the end of the year. Second place gets 9 points and so on. If you finish third in every category then theoretically you will win the league. It is very difficult to have that much balance on your team to finish that high in each category so follow along as I take you through a very nerdy journey to fantasy glory.
I Bought Numbers:
My whole theory entering the draft was that I have an ideal number that I have to reach at each category in order to win it or place in the top 3. What we have seen from years past is that the total number of counting stats generally are the same in everything. What I did was look at the high end numbers from previous first place teams in each category and I tried to buy the players that would add up to each specific number.
My projected ranges were as follows for first place:
Keep in mind this is all ESPN projected numbers and my own personal goals to reach so ya, it's going to be bias. To see the league page go to our website and follow the link under the MLB section.
Steals 195-215
What I got was,
Player name, what I paid (projected # of steals)
Michael Bourn, $17 (60), Coco Crisp $3 (42), Matt Kemp $38 (33), Ben Zobrist $16 (20), Hunter Pence $16 (11),
Evan Longoria $28 (8), Marco Scutaro $7 (7).
All the other hitters on my roster, 8, would average roughly 2-3 steals this year for a total of about 15.
Add up all of that and I get 196.
I'm feeling pretty good at this point.
Home Runs 300-320
What I got was,
Mike Stanton $31 (37), Matt Kemp $38 (34), Evan Longoria $28 (32), Adrian Gonzalez $30 (30), Aramis Ramirez $13 (27), Hunter Pence $16 (23),
Ike Davis $1 (19), Ben Zobrist $16 (18), Jhonny Peralta $6 (18), Mike Moustakas $1 (15), Kurt Suzuki $1 (14), J.D. Martinez $1 (14),
Marco Scutaro $7 (13).
My two other hitters, Crisp and Bourn, added up to 10 HR.
Add that all up and I'm at 304.
I'm okay with that. I still think Kemp gets 40 but Ike Davis' injury concerns me here as well.
Runs 1230-1280
What I got was,
A. Gonzalez 111, Kemp 103, Longoria 97, Bourn 94, Zobrist 92, Scutaro 92, Stanton 87, Pence 85, A. Ramirez 71, Davis 71, Martinez 65,
Peralta 64, Crisp 64, Moustakas 63, Suzuki 61.
Add that all up and I'm at 1220.
Ya not in that top tier but I'm still up on the leader board. Remember top 3 finishes are key.
RBI's 1220-1270
What I got was,
A. Gonzalez 120, Kemp 112, Longoria 111, Stanton 101, Pence 91, Zobrist 89, A. Ramirez 88, Peralta 83, Davis 79, Moustakas 77, Martinez 74,
Scutaro 68, Suzuki 63, Crisp 48, Bourn 45
Add that all up and I'm at 1249
I can live with that but I am worried with these counting numbers and I'll explain why shortly.
The problem:
The issue with what I'm doing is that I have 2 bench hitters that I am adding into all of this, the goals I'm setting are set for only live roster statistics. Meaning that if I bench Moustakas and Martinez the entire season then I would have to take away their projected numbers from all of this. But, like I said I'm going to be heavily bias in this article so I have confidence in my roster as we begin the season. Keep in mind the goals I'm setting are fairly high so if you want to match my counting system feel free to add two bench hitters into all of this and see how you compare to me.
Batting Average .280 - higher
I don't want to sit here and add up all of my hitters projected averages because if a player like Ike Davis hits his projected .269 but only has 400 AB's it won't calculate correctly with A. Gonzalez's projected average of .310 in over 600 AB's. Batting average is something that is most affected when you draft players like Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, etc. That is something I do not do.
-Quick rant,
Did anyone else see Ubaldo Jimenez throw at Troy Tulowitzki. It was clearly intentional and it brought back why I love baseball so much. This is the equivalent of a defensive end taking a cheap shot on Tom Brady. Obviously the league is going to fine and possibly suspend the defensive end (in this case, Ubaldo) but on the field it's a HBP and a "take your base" call from the umpire. There is no penalty on the diamond for throwing at a hitter the way a personal foul would give 15 free yards to an offense. Throwing at a hitters head is dangerous but it is part of the game. The NFL has taken away any mental edge a defense could have. The days of "Defense Wins Championships" is over in the NFL. If football rules were placed in baseball for intentionally throwing at a batter it would be an automatic 3-0 count and a ghost runner would be placed on first. I hope MLB doesn't begin major rule changes the way the NFL has done to keep their stars safe. I understand the financial side of this but I would hate to see all of the grit and struggle taken away from the ball field.
Back to my Dorky numbers theory.
Wins 95-115
Wins are another category I don't feel the need to give you my projections for. Here's why, I will be streaming as the season progresses. My strategy in this draft was to spend $55 on pitching (I spent $52). I wanted to snag two aces (Hamels at $18 and Gallardo at $14). Then I was going to grab a handful of cheap pitchers that offered me help at an individual category or two.
My Staff:
Hamels $18, Gallardo $14, McCarthy $5, Farnsworth $4, Santos $4, Capps $2, Perez $2, Nolasco $1, Worley $1, Minor $1.
Strikeouts 1400-1500
Mike Minor at $1 would help me with K's (projected 161) as would Nolasco at $1 (projected 167). These guys would be nice compliments to my aces projected numbers, Hamels with 201 and Gallardo at 234. Even if you were to add in Worley's projected 140 and McCarthy's 135 I would be at 1038. If you were to add my closers K's that would be around 234 more. The total is 1272. This is why I will be streaming for K's throughout the season even though it risks my WHIP and ERA. Remember top 3.
ERA 3.05 and below
The hope for my team to have success with a low ERA fully relies on my chances of Hamels, Gallardo, and McCarthy giving me 620 innings of a sub 3.10 ERA. I would think that my closers at the end of the year would give me something close to a 3.10 as well. If I can stream carefully then I would be in contention to finish in the top 3 in ERA. Looking at other pitching staff's in the league, I'm going to have to get lucky to finish in the top 5.
WHIP 1.10 and below
In a sense I took the same approach to the ERA as I did the WHIP. I need to have a strong start from my two aces to have a chance of finishing in the top 5.
*The interesting thing about how I play in roto leagues is that when I feel locked into a certain spot in the standings in WHIP and/or ERA I tend to stream pitchers looking to get Wins and K's. I'm not afraid to let my WHIP and ERA take a hit if I can grab another 7 or 8 K's and a win.
Saves 130 or higher
I went with 4 opening day closers on my team to start the season. I want to be able to jump out in saves and hope that it has a good effect on my ERA and WHIP before Nolasco destroys what I have built up with the rest of the staff. If my four closers, Santos $4, Perez $2, Capps $2, and Farnsworth $3 hold up I will finish with about 130 saves. For the past 4 years I have been on the Nolasco love train but this year I don't own him in any other league except this one. It's do or die time for Ricky N.
If i had to predict my finishes in certain categories it would go as follows,
This is just my guess. If you look at other pitching staffs out there you may disagree but that's why we play the game.
HR's-9 points
RBI's- 9 points
Runs- 9 points
SB's- 10 points
AVG.- 10 points
Wins- 7 points
ERA- 5 points
WHIP- 5 points
K's- 7 points
Saves- 9 points
Total- 81 (heavily bias but who knows how this year will play out)
That was my personal draft strategy and you can see how the season goes by clicking the link on our home page. As for the rest of the draft here are some interesting notes that took place.
Starlin Castro $20- I love this kid but I got Scutaro for $7. Other SS went for: Hardy $6, A. Cabrera $12, Rollins $11.
Brett Lawrie $18- I can't argue with this. I've seen him go a lot higher in other drafts.
Adam Jones $10- A steal here with similar OF going for: B.J. Upton $12, Werth $12, Choo $12, Jennings $11.
Matt Weiters $10- Another solid steal. Other C: Posey $10, Mauer $8, McCann $14, Avila $9.
Albert Pujols $35- Right on the money. Other 1B: Miggy $37, Hosmer $24, Konerko $19, A. Gonzalez $30.
Yoenis Cespedes $3, Yu Darvish $10.
Stephen Strasburg $16, Matt Moore $13, David Price $15, Zack Greinke $22, Ian Kennedy $12.
-Nothing really stood out to me as crazy. I don't feel that anyone grossly overpaid for a player. The trick is to attach a dollar value to a player and hope that he returns the value in statistics. This draft was one of the best, most realistic drafts I've been a part of since I began playing several years ago. Overall I think the draft was a success and this season is going to be crazy. Good luck to all that have joined. For more information on this league as well as strategy and trade talk as the season progresses tune into our show and visit our website at www.mrfantasyfreak.com
Connect with The Fantasy Freak Podcast and its voices by twitter and email:
http://mrfantasyfreak.com/
@MrFantasyFreak
@Awies28 (has a picture of me and Jackie Joyner Kersee) Not just sports tweets, PG18ish
email us at mrfantasyfreak@yahoo.com
Alex Wiesner
Before I Begin:
What do we know about ESPN roto leagues? Well that over the past 3 seasons the average first place team has finished with 80.89 points.
What do we know about basic math?
8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8=80
10+10+10+10+10+6+6+6+6+6=80
9+7+9+7+9+7+9+7+9+7=80
10+6+7+9+8+9+8+7+6+10=80
(you may have seen this on ESPN but it's not copyrighted because their just numbers)
If this is too much feel free to use a calculator or a math mathematician to double check my work. Or a wizard if your still not sure.
If you don't understand what those numbers mean it's simple. Each number represents a category. If your in the standard ESPN league (like the draft I'm recapping) then the categories are: Batting Average, Home Runs, RBI's, Runs Scored, Steals, ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Wins, Saves. By finishing first in a category you will receive 10 points at the end of the year. Second place gets 9 points and so on. If you finish third in every category then theoretically you will win the league. It is very difficult to have that much balance on your team to finish that high in each category so follow along as I take you through a very nerdy journey to fantasy glory.
I Bought Numbers:
My whole theory entering the draft was that I have an ideal number that I have to reach at each category in order to win it or place in the top 3. What we have seen from years past is that the total number of counting stats generally are the same in everything. What I did was look at the high end numbers from previous first place teams in each category and I tried to buy the players that would add up to each specific number.
My projected ranges were as follows for first place:
Keep in mind this is all ESPN projected numbers and my own personal goals to reach so ya, it's going to be bias. To see the league page go to our website and follow the link under the MLB section.
Steals 195-215
What I got was,
Player name, what I paid (projected # of steals)
Michael Bourn, $17 (60), Coco Crisp $3 (42), Matt Kemp $38 (33), Ben Zobrist $16 (20), Hunter Pence $16 (11),
Evan Longoria $28 (8), Marco Scutaro $7 (7).
All the other hitters on my roster, 8, would average roughly 2-3 steals this year for a total of about 15.
Add up all of that and I get 196.
I'm feeling pretty good at this point.
Home Runs 300-320
What I got was,
Mike Stanton $31 (37), Matt Kemp $38 (34), Evan Longoria $28 (32), Adrian Gonzalez $30 (30), Aramis Ramirez $13 (27), Hunter Pence $16 (23),
Ike Davis $1 (19), Ben Zobrist $16 (18), Jhonny Peralta $6 (18), Mike Moustakas $1 (15), Kurt Suzuki $1 (14), J.D. Martinez $1 (14),
Marco Scutaro $7 (13).
My two other hitters, Crisp and Bourn, added up to 10 HR.
Add that all up and I'm at 304.
I'm okay with that. I still think Kemp gets 40 but Ike Davis' injury concerns me here as well.
Runs 1230-1280
What I got was,
A. Gonzalez 111, Kemp 103, Longoria 97, Bourn 94, Zobrist 92, Scutaro 92, Stanton 87, Pence 85, A. Ramirez 71, Davis 71, Martinez 65,
Peralta 64, Crisp 64, Moustakas 63, Suzuki 61.
Add that all up and I'm at 1220.
Ya not in that top tier but I'm still up on the leader board. Remember top 3 finishes are key.
RBI's 1220-1270
What I got was,
A. Gonzalez 120, Kemp 112, Longoria 111, Stanton 101, Pence 91, Zobrist 89, A. Ramirez 88, Peralta 83, Davis 79, Moustakas 77, Martinez 74,
Scutaro 68, Suzuki 63, Crisp 48, Bourn 45
Add that all up and I'm at 1249
I can live with that but I am worried with these counting numbers and I'll explain why shortly.
The problem:
The issue with what I'm doing is that I have 2 bench hitters that I am adding into all of this, the goals I'm setting are set for only live roster statistics. Meaning that if I bench Moustakas and Martinez the entire season then I would have to take away their projected numbers from all of this. But, like I said I'm going to be heavily bias in this article so I have confidence in my roster as we begin the season. Keep in mind the goals I'm setting are fairly high so if you want to match my counting system feel free to add two bench hitters into all of this and see how you compare to me.
Batting Average .280 - higher
I don't want to sit here and add up all of my hitters projected averages because if a player like Ike Davis hits his projected .269 but only has 400 AB's it won't calculate correctly with A. Gonzalez's projected average of .310 in over 600 AB's. Batting average is something that is most affected when you draft players like Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, etc. That is something I do not do.
-Quick rant,
Did anyone else see Ubaldo Jimenez throw at Troy Tulowitzki. It was clearly intentional and it brought back why I love baseball so much. This is the equivalent of a defensive end taking a cheap shot on Tom Brady. Obviously the league is going to fine and possibly suspend the defensive end (in this case, Ubaldo) but on the field it's a HBP and a "take your base" call from the umpire. There is no penalty on the diamond for throwing at a hitter the way a personal foul would give 15 free yards to an offense. Throwing at a hitters head is dangerous but it is part of the game. The NFL has taken away any mental edge a defense could have. The days of "Defense Wins Championships" is over in the NFL. If football rules were placed in baseball for intentionally throwing at a batter it would be an automatic 3-0 count and a ghost runner would be placed on first. I hope MLB doesn't begin major rule changes the way the NFL has done to keep their stars safe. I understand the financial side of this but I would hate to see all of the grit and struggle taken away from the ball field.
Back to my Dorky numbers theory.
Wins 95-115
Wins are another category I don't feel the need to give you my projections for. Here's why, I will be streaming as the season progresses. My strategy in this draft was to spend $55 on pitching (I spent $52). I wanted to snag two aces (Hamels at $18 and Gallardo at $14). Then I was going to grab a handful of cheap pitchers that offered me help at an individual category or two.
My Staff:
Hamels $18, Gallardo $14, McCarthy $5, Farnsworth $4, Santos $4, Capps $2, Perez $2, Nolasco $1, Worley $1, Minor $1.
Strikeouts 1400-1500
Mike Minor at $1 would help me with K's (projected 161) as would Nolasco at $1 (projected 167). These guys would be nice compliments to my aces projected numbers, Hamels with 201 and Gallardo at 234. Even if you were to add in Worley's projected 140 and McCarthy's 135 I would be at 1038. If you were to add my closers K's that would be around 234 more. The total is 1272. This is why I will be streaming for K's throughout the season even though it risks my WHIP and ERA. Remember top 3.
ERA 3.05 and below
The hope for my team to have success with a low ERA fully relies on my chances of Hamels, Gallardo, and McCarthy giving me 620 innings of a sub 3.10 ERA. I would think that my closers at the end of the year would give me something close to a 3.10 as well. If I can stream carefully then I would be in contention to finish in the top 3 in ERA. Looking at other pitching staff's in the league, I'm going to have to get lucky to finish in the top 5.
WHIP 1.10 and below
In a sense I took the same approach to the ERA as I did the WHIP. I need to have a strong start from my two aces to have a chance of finishing in the top 5.
*The interesting thing about how I play in roto leagues is that when I feel locked into a certain spot in the standings in WHIP and/or ERA I tend to stream pitchers looking to get Wins and K's. I'm not afraid to let my WHIP and ERA take a hit if I can grab another 7 or 8 K's and a win.
Saves 130 or higher
I went with 4 opening day closers on my team to start the season. I want to be able to jump out in saves and hope that it has a good effect on my ERA and WHIP before Nolasco destroys what I have built up with the rest of the staff. If my four closers, Santos $4, Perez $2, Capps $2, and Farnsworth $3 hold up I will finish with about 130 saves. For the past 4 years I have been on the Nolasco love train but this year I don't own him in any other league except this one. It's do or die time for Ricky N.
If i had to predict my finishes in certain categories it would go as follows,
This is just my guess. If you look at other pitching staffs out there you may disagree but that's why we play the game.
HR's-9 points
RBI's- 9 points
Runs- 9 points
SB's- 10 points
AVG.- 10 points
Wins- 7 points
ERA- 5 points
WHIP- 5 points
K's- 7 points
Saves- 9 points
Total- 81 (heavily bias but who knows how this year will play out)
That was my personal draft strategy and you can see how the season goes by clicking the link on our home page. As for the rest of the draft here are some interesting notes that took place.
Starlin Castro $20- I love this kid but I got Scutaro for $7. Other SS went for: Hardy $6, A. Cabrera $12, Rollins $11.
Brett Lawrie $18- I can't argue with this. I've seen him go a lot higher in other drafts.
Adam Jones $10- A steal here with similar OF going for: B.J. Upton $12, Werth $12, Choo $12, Jennings $11.
Matt Weiters $10- Another solid steal. Other C: Posey $10, Mauer $8, McCann $14, Avila $9.
Albert Pujols $35- Right on the money. Other 1B: Miggy $37, Hosmer $24, Konerko $19, A. Gonzalez $30.
Yoenis Cespedes $3, Yu Darvish $10.
Stephen Strasburg $16, Matt Moore $13, David Price $15, Zack Greinke $22, Ian Kennedy $12.
-Nothing really stood out to me as crazy. I don't feel that anyone grossly overpaid for a player. The trick is to attach a dollar value to a player and hope that he returns the value in statistics. This draft was one of the best, most realistic drafts I've been a part of since I began playing several years ago. Overall I think the draft was a success and this season is going to be crazy. Good luck to all that have joined. For more information on this league as well as strategy and trade talk as the season progresses tune into our show and visit our website at www.mrfantasyfreak.com
Connect with The Fantasy Freak Podcast and its voices by twitter and email:
http://mrfantasyfreak.com/
@MrFantasyFreak
@Awies28 (has a picture of me and Jackie Joyner Kersee) Not just sports tweets, PG18ish
email us at mrfantasyfreak@yahoo.com
Alex Wiesner
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